2006 Bullpen

Introduction
For me the bullpen was actually the most frustrating element to predict for next year.  Undoubtably the Twins will have one of the best bullpen's in the League for 2006 but there are some definete question marks for next season.  Currently we have a solid foundation in Nathan, Ricon, Crain and Guerrier but who will get the other two spots in the pen remains undecided going into Spring Training.  Last year the two spots were manned by Terry Mulholland and JC Romero.  Romero's numbers were halfway decent last year, but for anybody who actually watch the games, that didn't tell the story.  Romero absolutely refused to get anybody out until he vacated the basepaths of anybody else's mess.  If he came in to start an inning he'd usually put atleast two guys on before getting any outs.  Romero's intended role in our current bullpen model was to be the power lefty, low to mid 90's fastball with atleast one other out pitch.  I think the Twins will keep to that model in replacing him this year.  In looking at the minor league moves last year, it looks like they were hoping Ricky Barrett would end up replacing Romero.  Barrett quickly tore up AA last year but stuggled when he was called up to Rochester putting up an ugly +6 ERA.  Though he did average about 1K/IP is control faultered horribly.  Not to be denied however of their hopeful replacement the Twins decided to send him to the AFL despite better performing candidates.  Well Barrett basically got shelled giving up 20R (12ER) in just 12 IP.  Walking two batters for every strikeout.  Apparently he still has some maturing to do and I would not expect him to contribute in any manner next year.  Replacing Terry Mulholland on the other hand is another story.  Terry was the old school crafty lefty and there was definetly a stark contrast in his splits.  Righties pounded Terry to the tune of .321/.526 (BA/SLG) but true to form lefties hit a weak .202/.298.  The thing with Terry last year though, was that facing lefties wasn't his intended purpose because last year he faced 137 righties and only 84 lefties.  So the big question I guess, is whether Gardenhire will choose to have two lefties in the pen.  Both Rincon and Crain have both proven that they're pretty much even against both, and if you have one lefty will that be good enough?  In my opinion, it would be.  However in looking at the offseason moves so far and our current 40 man roster there seems like there's an absolute abundunce of lefties to fill just one spot.  To begin with there are the offseason aquisitions of Reyes, May and White.  Right now, there are two other lefties on the roster with major league experience in Liriano and Gassner. And then there's a whole jumble of prospects in Jones, Mirajes and Simonitsch not to mention couple invites for Barrett and Perkins (no way he becomes a reliever).  But then of course you have to ask the question on whether or not you want another lefty, when the main particular duty of that spot last year was to eat mostly nonimportant innings.  So why can't a RHP fill that spot?  Will Durbin finally gain his control, or is it finally time for Willie Eyre?  With our bench is there any chance will carry seven in the pen?  Anyways, time I started talking about the things we'll know...  I will continue to list any stats to which I believe are relevant to that players performance.

2006 Bullpen
(CL) Joe Nathan RHP
Juan Rincon RHP
Jesse Crain RHP
Matt Guerrier RHP
Francisco Liriano LHP
Gabe White LHP

Joe Nathan
Last year Joe had a very good year in a not so great year for the Twins.  As seen from his All-Star apearance, he got his props for his outstanding performance the year before.  Though I think Joe was equally as good in 2005 his numbers didn't really reflect it.  Because of the Twins performance Joe was brought in on several non save situations so that he would stay fresh.  There were many contributing factors of course but essentially 11 of his 21 earned runs came in non save situations.  I think in 2006 when the Twins are doing better, Nathan will be able to be used regularly and his ERA should come back down.  What I really like about last year were  a couple of things.  Nathan really showed his intensity, sometimes throwing his slider over 90mph and really blowing guys away with his fastball.  I believe his fastball averaged almost 95 in relief, top five in the AL.  What I also really liked during the second half was his unwillingness to mess around often coming in and striking out the side in the 9th.  The biggest of those coming against the White Sox in the 9th with the bases loaded.  Amazingly he was able to strikeout the side and preserve Johan's ERA and the shutout.  The only thing I wish we could see from Nathan more often is the ability to come in and pitch more than one inning to get the save, because isn't that what really distinguishes the great closers? As opposed to any other regular guy who can come in the 9th with the bases empty and keep anybody from crossing home.  As much as I want to see Joe make that next step, there is really no need for him to make that step.  In reality for him to have to make that step would imply that the rest of our pen is weak and obviously that wasn't the case last year and it probably wont be again this year.  Rarely do Rincon and Crain require a bail out.  Anyways, with a better year from the Twins will come better numbers from Joe.
Projections:
SV (49) ERA (1.94) WHIP (.95) K/9 (12.56)

Juan Rincon
I think everybody quickly forgot about Juan's little bout with performance enhancing drugs.  To be honest I really don't know what he was taking, but I really don't think it was much of a big deal.  I guess his strikeouts were down from last year but he was obviously more effective this year, so I'm not really concerned.  In 2005 Rincon proved that he is among the top 5 among set up men in the game.  He's everything you want from a guy in his role.  For a man his size I think his mid-90's fastball his very deceptive.  Hitters don't realize how quickly it comes in hence he's able to over power a lot of guys.  What I'm really starting to notice from Rincon is that he doesn't have to rely on striking guys out to get out of a jam, as he's gained experience he's learned otherways to accomplish his goals. He's become a very good in nasty situtions that require a good deal of precision.  2006 should be another solid and consistent year from Rincon.
Projections:
Holds (28) ERA (2.57)  K/9  (10.22)

Jesse Crain
Ah Jesse...  What this guy has done over the past year and a half has been simply remarkable.  The funniest part of it all is that we as fans, me included, are somehow dissapointed.  All we heard out Jesse Crain in the minors was his strike out rate.  His rookie card right infront of me states "his 96-mph heater and his flithy slider" are the keys to his success.  The slider remains, but from what we've seen of his fastball at the major league level, upper 90's has become a myth.  I really wonder how many relievers in recent history have posted an ERA like his and actually had 29 BB's and 25 K's to accompany that 2.71 mark.  His ability to make guys hit the ball, yet hit the ball so poorly is simply amazing.  Yes I know he shortened his stride to improve his control, and yes I know his control has made him unhittable, but what's so wrong with a nice 98mph fastball?  So in running this through my head I got this strange notion.  What if this is all apart of a process?  What if this is just training for what's yet to come?  Seriously, would you really want to avoid making a high 90's fastball a part of your repertouir if you had that ability? So my theory goes like this.  Last year was only Jesse's training ground.  Last year he learned how to maximize the effectiveness of his slider, last year he trained himself to get guys out without making them whiff.  Maybe not in 2006, but soon he will bring back the heater and become the full package.  Essentially training to become one of the premier closers in the game.  Anyways, I know it's far fetched but it's fun to think about.  So for 2006 I will patiently wait to watch to see what else this kid's got up his sleeve.  To the 7th and beyond!
Projections:
Holds (20) ERA (2.24)  BB/9 (2.36)

Matt Guerrier
For me Matt had to the biggest surprise season out of any Twin, nobody really saw him coming.  Matt I think will be the first of many of his kind.  Looking at our abundunce of minor league starting pitchers, it seems inevitable that more and more will have to become versatile enough to find anyway onto the Twins roster.  I am extremely impressed with the grit he should, he was so determined to play at the Major League level, he forced himself to adapt to his situation so that he would be successful enough to force the Twins to keep him.  In my mind he could easily be our number 5 starter or even our number 4 for that matter.  2006 is actually probably a defining year for Matt.  If he does not make the starting rotation this year, he probably will never start with the Twins.  Now that doesn't necessarily mean he'll become a permanent reliever.  The best case scenario for Matt and possibly the Twins would be an injury to one of the 5 starters.  If Matt was then granted the ability to start in their absence and does well, he could become a very powerful trading chip at the end of the year.  That aside, I do expect Guerrier to have a very similar roll to last year: important long relief.  I do believe he will see himself in even some more demanding situations, but nothing near what Crain and Rincon will experience.  How did he not manage to get a win last year?
Projections:
Record (6-2) ERA (3.72)

Fransico Liriano/ Willie Eyre
If you want to know my thoughts on Liriano refer back to my previous post.  In terms of who will replace him at the halfway mark, I have to agree with roger from Twinkie Town in that I'd like to see Jose Mirajes take over.  Looking at all our potential lefty relievers, Mirajes obviously has the best potential stuff.  His control was of concern earlier in 2005, but that seems to be on the mend.  Still, Mirajes is very young and doesn't have any experience above high A ball.  My prediction instead is that Willie Eyre will find his way into this spot as the Twins realize that they really only need Gabe White as the lefty in the bullpen.  There's an outside chance that JD Durbin will come out inspired in 2006 and refind his control and give the Twins another power arm in the pen but I'm not counting on it.  Would be a nice surprise though. Willie Eyre has been consistent and he's been patient.  He's earned his chance to make his mark in the majors and personally I'd be frustrated if I hadn't gotten a shot yet with the numbers he's posted.  My only concern is that his style and pitch repertuoir might be too similar to Matt Guerrier, not sure.  The fact that he recorded 10 wins in 56 games of relief, is a testament that he can be counted on when the games on the line.  Though his 2006 may be rough at junctures I expect a good deal of resiliance and a solid performance overall in relief.
Projections:
ERA (4.32)

Gabe White
Out of all the possible lefties that we picked up over the offseason this is the only guy I can make a case for.  While I feel that this particular role could be filled by someone like Dave Gassner, he doesn't have White's experience and you know Gardenhire's going to want vetran lefty presence in the bullpen.  What does impress me some about Gabe White is his success in Colorado and Cincinnati between 2000 and 2003 with the exception of 2001.  For an extreme fly ball pitcher in two of the most hitter friendly ballparks, obviously he was doing something right and was able to find success.  If White's on the mound just make sure Torii's ready to go in center and your bound to lower is ERA by at least a point...  Anyways, I don't see how Reyes will make it.  He's had control problems his entire life, so I don't really see why the Twins had interest in him in the first place.  Considering Reyes was the first one we offered a minor league contract to, I would assume Terry Ryan was just scrambling to make some options available.  Obviously you can't use the same justification Ryan used for aquiring Darrell May (i.e. he may have had a bad year but he has had some success against the Twins, umm... here Terry let me get out my list of 200 pitchers who did well against the Twins last year, let's see Jose Lima, Nate Robertson...) because Reyes gave up the game winning hit to switch-hitting Glenn Williams when San Diego was in town in June.  Anyways, back to Gabe.  Don't expect anything amazing, but I would not be completely surprised if he didn't put up a halfway decent season.
Projections:
ERA (4.37) IP (55) Lefty BA (.215)

Comments

[roger]

There is one lefty who is missing from your list of prospects, Jason Miller. He did very well at New Britain and better than Barrett at Rochester. He wasn't sent to the AFL, wasn't added to the 40-man roster, and wasn't invited to spring training. Not knowing him, I don't understand why.