CaseinTHEface: The Case for Twins Strategy

2006 Bullpen

Introduction
For me the bullpen was actually the most frustrating element to predict for next year.  Undoubtably the Twins will have one of the best bullpen's in the League for 2006 but there are some definete question marks for next season.  Currently we have a solid foundation in Nathan, Ricon, Crain and Guerrier but who will get the other two spots in the pen remains undecided going into Spring Training.  Last year the two spots were manned by Terry Mulholland and JC Romero.  Romero's numbers were halfway decent last year, but for anybody who actually watch the games, that didn't tell the story.  Romero absolutely refused to get anybody out until he vacated the basepaths of anybody else's mess.  If he came in to start an inning he'd usually put atleast two guys on before getting any outs.  Romero's intended role in our current bullpen model was to be the power lefty, low to mid 90's fastball with atleast one other out pitch.  I think the Twins will keep to that model in replacing him this year.  In looking at the minor league moves last year, it looks like they were hoping Ricky Barrett would end up replacing Romero.  Barrett quickly tore up AA last year but stuggled when he was called up to Rochester putting up an ugly +6 ERA.  Though he did average about 1K/IP is control faultered horribly.  Not to be denied however of their hopeful replacement the Twins decided to send him to the AFL despite better performing candidates.  Well Barrett basically got shelled giving up 20R (12ER) in just 12 IP.  Walking two batters for every strikeout.  Apparently he still has some maturing to do and I would not expect him to contribute in any manner next year.  Replacing Terry Mulholland on the other hand is another story.  Terry was the old school crafty lefty and there was definetly a stark contrast in his splits.  Righties pounded Terry to the tune of .321/.526 (BA/SLG) but true to form lefties hit a weak .202/.298.  The thing with Terry last year though, was that facing lefties wasn't his intended purpose because last year he faced 137 righties and only 84 lefties.  So the big question I guess, is whether Gardenhire will choose to have two lefties in the pen.  Both Rincon and Crain have both proven that they're pretty much even against both, and if you have one lefty will that be good enough?  In my opinion, it would be.  However in looking at the offseason moves so far and our current 40 man roster there seems like there's an absolute abundunce of lefties to fill just one spot.  To begin with there are the offseason aquisitions of Reyes, May and White.  Right now, there are two other lefties on the roster with major league experience in Liriano and Gassner. And then there's a whole jumble of prospects in Jones, Mirajes and Simonitsch not to mention couple invites for Barrett and Perkins (no way he becomes a reliever).  But then of course you have to ask the question on whether or not you want another lefty, when the main particular duty of that spot last year was to eat mostly nonimportant innings.  So why can't a RHP fill that spot?  Will Durbin finally gain his control, or is it finally time for Willie Eyre?  With our bench is there any chance will carry seven in the pen?  Anyways, time I started talking about the things we'll know...  I will continue to list any stats to which I believe are relevant to that players performance.

2006 Bullpen
(CL) Joe Nathan RHP
Juan Rincon RHP
Jesse Crain RHP
Matt Guerrier RHP
Francisco Liriano LHP
Gabe White LHP

Joe Nathan
Last year Joe had a very good year in a not so great year for the Twins.  As seen from his All-Star apearance, he got his props for his outstanding performance the year before.  Though I think Joe was equally as good in 2005 his numbers didn't really reflect it.  Because of the Twins performance Joe was brought in on several non save situations so that he would stay fresh.  There were many contributing factors of course but essentially 11 of his 21 earned runs came in non save situations.  I think in 2006 when the Twins are doing better, Nathan will be able to be used regularly and his ERA should come back down.  What I really like about last year were  a couple of things.  Nathan really showed his intensity, sometimes throwing his slider over 90mph and really blowing guys away with his fastball.  I believe his fastball averaged almost 95 in relief, top five in the AL.  What I also really liked during the second half was his unwillingness to mess around often coming in and striking out the side in the 9th.  The biggest of those coming against the White Sox in the 9th with the bases loaded.  Amazingly he was able to strikeout the side and preserve Johan's ERA and the shutout.  The only thing I wish we could see from Nathan more often is the ability to come in and pitch more than one inning to get the save, because isn't that what really distinguishes the great closers? As opposed to any other regular guy who can come in the 9th with the bases empty and keep anybody from crossing home.  As much as I want to see Joe make that next step, there is really no need for him to make that step.  In reality for him to have to make that step would imply that the rest of our pen is weak and obviously that wasn't the case last year and it probably wont be again this year.  Rarely do Rincon and Crain require a bail out.  Anyways, with a better year from the Twins will come better numbers from Joe.
Projections:
SV (49) ERA (1.94) WHIP (.95) K/9 (12.56)

Juan Rincon
I think everybody quickly forgot about Juan's little bout with performance enhancing drugs.  To be honest I really don't know what he was taking, but I really don't think it was much of a big deal.  I guess his strikeouts were down from last year but he was obviously more effective this year, so I'm not really concerned.  In 2005 Rincon proved that he is among the top 5 among set up men in the game.  He's everything you want from a guy in his role.  For a man his size I think his mid-90's fastball his very deceptive.  Hitters don't realize how quickly it comes in hence he's able to over power a lot of guys.  What I'm really starting to notice from Rincon is that he doesn't have to rely on striking guys out to get out of a jam, as he's gained experience he's learned otherways to accomplish his goals. He's become a very good in nasty situtions that require a good deal of precision.  2006 should be another solid and consistent year from Rincon.
Projections:
Holds (28) ERA (2.57)  K/9  (10.22)

Jesse Crain
Ah Jesse...  What this guy has done over the past year and a half has been simply remarkable.  The funniest part of it all is that we as fans, me included, are somehow dissapointed.  All we heard out Jesse Crain in the minors was his strike out rate.  His rookie card right infront of me states "his 96-mph heater and his flithy slider" are the keys to his success.  The slider remains, but from what we've seen of his fastball at the major league level, upper 90's has become a myth.  I really wonder how many relievers in recent history have posted an ERA like his and actually had 29 BB's and 25 K's to accompany that 2.71 mark.  His ability to make guys hit the ball, yet hit the ball so poorly is simply amazing.  Yes I know he shortened his stride to improve his control, and yes I know his control has made him unhittable, but what's so wrong with a nice 98mph fastball?  So in running this through my head I got this strange notion.  What if this is all apart of a process?  What if this is just training for what's yet to come?  Seriously, would you really want to avoid making a high 90's fastball a part of your repertouir if you had that ability? So my theory goes like this.  Last year was only Jesse's training ground.  Last year he learned how to maximize the effectiveness of his slider, last year he trained himself to get guys out without making them whiff.  Maybe not in 2006, but soon he will bring back the heater and become the full package.  Essentially training to become one of the premier closers in the game.  Anyways, I know it's far fetched but it's fun to think about.  So for 2006 I will patiently wait to watch to see what else this kid's got up his sleeve.  To the 7th and beyond!
Projections:
Holds (20) ERA (2.24)  BB/9 (2.36)

Matt Guerrier
For me Matt had to the biggest surprise season out of any Twin, nobody really saw him coming.  Matt I think will be the first of many of his kind.  Looking at our abundunce of minor league starting pitchers, it seems inevitable that more and more will have to become versatile enough to find anyway onto the Twins roster.  I am extremely impressed with the grit he should, he was so determined to play at the Major League level, he forced himself to adapt to his situation so that he would be successful enough to force the Twins to keep him.  In my mind he could easily be our number 5 starter or even our number 4 for that matter.  2006 is actually probably a defining year for Matt.  If he does not make the starting rotation this year, he probably will never start with the Twins.  Now that doesn't necessarily mean he'll become a permanent reliever.  The best case scenario for Matt and possibly the Twins would be an injury to one of the 5 starters.  If Matt was then granted the ability to start in their absence and does well, he could become a very powerful trading chip at the end of the year.  That aside, I do expect Guerrier to have a very similar roll to last year: important long relief.  I do believe he will see himself in even some more demanding situations, but nothing near what Crain and Rincon will experience.  How did he not manage to get a win last year?
Projections:
Record (6-2) ERA (3.72)

Fransico Liriano/ Willie Eyre
If you want to know my thoughts on Liriano refer back to my previous post.  In terms of who will replace him at the halfway mark, I have to agree with roger from Twinkie Town in that I'd like to see Jose Mirajes take over.  Looking at all our potential lefty relievers, Mirajes obviously has the best potential stuff.  His control was of concern earlier in 2005, but that seems to be on the mend.  Still, Mirajes is very young and doesn't have any experience above high A ball.  My prediction instead is that Willie Eyre will find his way into this spot as the Twins realize that they really only need Gabe White as the lefty in the bullpen.  There's an outside chance that JD Durbin will come out inspired in 2006 and refind his control and give the Twins another power arm in the pen but I'm not counting on it.  Would be a nice surprise though. Willie Eyre has been consistent and he's been patient.  He's earned his chance to make his mark in the majors and personally I'd be frustrated if I hadn't gotten a shot yet with the numbers he's posted.  My only concern is that his style and pitch repertuoir might be too similar to Matt Guerrier, not sure.  The fact that he recorded 10 wins in 56 games of relief, is a testament that he can be counted on when the games on the line.  Though his 2006 may be rough at junctures I expect a good deal of resiliance and a solid performance overall in relief.
Projections:
ERA (4.32)

Gabe White
Out of all the possible lefties that we picked up over the offseason this is the only guy I can make a case for.  While I feel that this particular role could be filled by someone like Dave Gassner, he doesn't have White's experience and you know Gardenhire's going to want vetran lefty presence in the bullpen.  What does impress me some about Gabe White is his success in Colorado and Cincinnati between 2000 and 2003 with the exception of 2001.  For an extreme fly ball pitcher in two of the most hitter friendly ballparks, obviously he was doing something right and was able to find success.  If White's on the mound just make sure Torii's ready to go in center and your bound to lower is ERA by at least a point...  Anyways, I don't see how Reyes will make it.  He's had control problems his entire life, so I don't really see why the Twins had interest in him in the first place.  Considering Reyes was the first one we offered a minor league contract to, I would assume Terry Ryan was just scrambling to make some options available.  Obviously you can't use the same justification Ryan used for aquiring Darrell May (i.e. he may have had a bad year but he has had some success against the Twins, umm... here Terry let me get out my list of 200 pitchers who did well against the Twins last year, let's see Jose Lima, Nate Robertson...) because Reyes gave up the game winning hit to switch-hitting Glenn Williams when San Diego was in town in June.  Anyways, back to Gabe.  Don't expect anything amazing, but I would not be completely surprised if he didn't put up a halfway decent season.
Projections:
ERA (4.37) IP (55) Lefty BA (.215)

Twins 2006 Pitching Staff

Introduction to Starting Rotation
As far as what were looking at going into spring training, we have four pitchers coming back.  Santana will probably be taking the lead this year followed by Radke, Silva and surprisingly the return of Kyle Lohse.  The fifth spot is supposedly up for grabs.  To me there's no contest.  Coming into spring training Gardenhire has been moaning about his unwillingness to have two rookie pitchers in the rotation.  Technically Scott Baker is not a rookie but Gardenhire knows that of course.  Plus, for what I will explain later, Baker proved that he is not a normal rookie buy any means.  I will analyze our current rotation and what should be expected from each.   My model, which I do not fully expect to occur, has Carlos Silva as the number 2 guy and has Kyle Lohse departing at the All Star break.  Today I'll do the rotation.  After that I'll look at the bullpen.  After that I'll look at our starting lineup.  Then finally I'll look at the bench and who we'll want to see some cameo appearances from this season.  As a general rule I'll post any stat that I believe to be relevant to that players success.

2006 Rotation
1) Johan Santana LHP
2) Carlos Silva RHP
3) Brad Radke RHP
4) Kyle Lohse RHP/Francisco Liriano LHP
5) Scott Baker RHP

Johan Santana
Lets face it, Johan has been the best pitcher in the American League that past two seasons.  Arguably he's the best pitcher in baseball.  Somehow however the only game I went to last year in which he pitched he got his worst shelling all year giving up 7 ER in 5 Inn against Toronto.  Anyways, his 16-7 record by no means told the story of his 2005 campaign.  Since the blogging community has already published enough pieces on why he should have won the Cy Young I think we can lay that issue to rest.  The fact is though that he had 7 no decisions in starts where he pitched 6 or more innings and gave up less than 3 earned runs.  The last three of those no decisions were games where he pitched 7 or more innings and gave up a measly run each outing.  On top of all that he took on 3 loses where he gave up only 2 earned runs.  Long story short, if our offense is only a bit improved this year, we should see 20 wins again from him.  What most excites me is the durability he's shown averaging 230 innings the last two years.  I fully expect Johan to come back out this year inspired, knowing himself that he really deserved the Cy Young last year.  Hopefully that inspiration will lead to better first half numbers, and the same performance down the stretch.  Maybe the illusive career achievement of a no hitter might be in the cards for Johan this year.
Projections:
Record (22-5) ERA (2.76) SHO (4)

Carlos Silva
In my mind Silva's season last year was absolutely remarkable.  Though some may disagree I believe Silva was our most consistent pitcher last year.  When he takes the hill you can basically expect he's going to go at least 7 innings and give up 4 or less runs in the process.  I think what gets us all excited is to think what he can do with a healthy knee.  My only concern would be that mentally he can't relax at all, he can be tempted to not maintain the same level of focus and intensity he had with the knee problems.  I know Brad is our franchise pitcher, but in my mind Silva has earned this spot and you know if he stays healthy he's just going to eat innings.  Maybe even compete with Santana for the lion-share of innings.  The other thing that I really like about Silva is that he's basically doing this all with one pitch, his sinker or two seemer (depending on whose doing the explanation).  After what you see guys like A.J. Burnett are getting for money, you gotta think we could can keep Silva around for awhile.  Because the thing is that he doesn't really have the stuff teams are looking for when they're offering big contracts.  He doesn't have an upper 90's fastball, and he doesn't really have a big strikeout pitch, because frankly he's not looking to strike you out.  What I'm getting at is that my thought is that the Twins can potentially keep him around for some time because his market value should remain very reasonable.  If not somebody please correct me.  Anyways expect great things for him this year.
Projections:
Record (16-8) ERA (3.62) CG (5) BB (19)

Brad Radke
I don't believe I'll be the first to voice my concern of Brad Radke.  Somebody told me last year that Brad turned down a contract offer from the Red Sox to finish his career in Minnesota. As much as I like Brad makes you wonder if it would have been better for him to go there, probably would've been an 18 game winner last year.  Because frankly 9 wins last year... million dollars per win is kind of expensive.  And in all honesty Brad had a pretty good year.  His ERA was sitting nice at 3.71 going into September when his shoulder undoubtedly affected his performance.  As far as next year is concerned I might too terribly frightened if his shoulder forces him to shut down at some point during the year, I'm excited to see some of these younger guys and what they can do.  We all know there's talent waiting.  The thing that has always bothered me about Brad is that he's not really the fierce competitor type. He's always been the duty type pitcher who goes out onto the mound and does his duty, which I guess each team needs.  I guess I kind of project onto Brad because in many ways I'm like him, the duty type.  But I've always wanted to be the guy pumping my fist every time I get the strikeout to end the inning...  Anyways next year I fully expect Brad to be Brad, he'll still give up home runs and most of his ERA will come from the first two innings on the mound.  But overall, if his shoulder cooperates, I expect him to try to finish his career with some style points.  He'll probably be the number two starter, but I believe number three would take some stress off his shoulder.  And really in a good pitching staff like our own he is a number 3 type, always double digits in wins and loses, career 4.22 ERA.  Anyways, hope for the best for Brad, are you really going to retire at 33?
Projections (assuming full season):
Record (14-12) ERA (4.23)

Kyle Lohse:
There's been a lot of talk this year about Kyle's career stats looking a lot like Jon Garland's numbers except Kyle's a bit older.  Anyways the thought is that Kyle might have a break out year.  For me, I'm not really a Kyle Lohse believer yet.  Last year I was usually backing Lohse when my father and I were arguing after he said that Mays was a better pitcher.  The good thing about Lohse is there's still a lot of upside because he's young and he's got the tools.  The other thing I liked last year that others didn't seem to appreciate was his competitive nature exemplified in his confrontation with Gardenhire's door.  The thing I didn't like about Kyle compared to in years past is that he wasn't as much fun to watch.  Many times it boiled down to whether or not the umpire was going to give him the outside corner.  The direction Anderson seems to be taking Lohse is to more of a control pitcher.  An in all honesty, this style being developed did bring Kyle is best season ERA and his walk total was down significantly from the year before.  For me though, I'm not a fan, and the looks of it neither was Kyle.  On the downside last year, Kyle ended up throwing a lot of pitches to each batter and as a result, rarely went past the six inning.  Hence the 179 innings last year.  Which in all honesty is pretty good for a number four starter.  But what we also saw were less strikeouts.  Many of the announcers last year discussed how Kyle doesn't have an "out pitch."  Frankly I disagree, I've seen him before throw in a good mix of pitches and then find ways to get guys swinging.  He'll obviously never be a 200k a year guy but that doesn't mean he can't pass 100k by a couple dozen.  Anyways, Kyle in many ways will be a wild card again this year.  My firm belief is that the the direction Anderson is taking him now, ultimately is not the most successful.  Anyone want to debate me on this, I'm ready for it.  Anyways, we'll see what 2006 holds for Kyle.  Personally I though he was expendable after last year, especially now that he's going to be making close to 4 million.  And I do think is trade value is pretty decent.  I do believe that there's a good chance that Terry Ryan's thinking is similar to my own in that his value will be pretty high come the All Star break, and he'll be traded for a good bat or a couple hitting prospects.  Because frankly, leaving all our pitching talent in the minors like this is borderline irresponsible.  After the season's over I do expect Lohse will have breached the 4.00 ERA mark.
Projections (pending mid-season trade):
Record (6-4) ERA (4.27)

Francisco Liriano:
For the first half of the season I have Liriano spending time in the bullpen as the power lefty.  Of the three "veterans" we've signed to deals the only one I see having a shot is Gabe White and he's not going to come in and get strikeouts like Liriano can.  Gardenhire has voiced his concerns about Liriano not being able to adapt back and forth from starting and relief.  I look at it this way, you developed a good model with Santana, why change it?  We all know Liriano has tremendous stuff.  Everything he throws is hard, I don't think he'll be throwing many pitches below 85 mph.  My main concern watching Liriano last year is the location of his fastball.  His slider was devastating and will probably be his main strikeout pitch, and his change-up looks to be pretty good so far.  Concerning his fastball, 97mph is pretty damn good coming from the left side, but you really have to be careful at the major league level.  And i really think this is the main issue.  In the minors most hitters will take a big swing and miss against that high fastball.  At the major league level there's a decent chance that pitch is going over a fence.  In my mind to send Liriano back to the minors will be detrimental to his development because it will allow him to fall back on old habits.  If he goes to the bullpen, he will be forced to learn how to locate his fastball at the major league level.  For the first half of the season when he's in the bullpen I recommend long relief whenever possible and at least three spot starts to make sure he doesn't lose his stamina.  By the all star break I really like to get him into Lohse's spot. Baker can stay at number five to prevent two similar lefties from pitching after one another.  It will be a good season for Liriano if he can accumulate close to 150 innings.  What I'm looking for would be something similar to Santana in 2003, where Liriano would get almost 20 starts and then have something like 50 appearances. And maybe if he does well enough at both facets, he'll have a good consideration for Rookie of the Year.  Unlikely however considering competition, he would probably have to have a good year in a starter roll almost the entire season.  Anyways go Liriano!
Projections:
Record (11-5) ERA (3.56) IPA (145) K/9 (10.7)

Scott Baker
This guy has earned every right to be in the starting rotation next year.  In 9 starts last year, he had only 2 rough starts and posted an outstanding 3.35 ERA.  If he can keep that kind of consistency ratio, we will quickly find that he is no number 5 starter.  Once he gets some experience under his belt, I would easily project him out to be a number 2 starter.  However, I hope Silva doesn't get out of the way for awhile.  In terms of next year I would expect that another 3.35 ERA is extreme wishful thinking, but I would actually be surprised if he didn't post a sub 4.00 ERA. I like his pitch selection and I like his control so far.  He'll need some work on his control yet, as shown by Oakland whose hitters know how to work counts.  My only other concern was his fly ball to ground ball ratio.  Hopefully that doesn't develop into an issue for him.  For 2006 I do expect them to coddle him with his pitch counts, so it will be a very good day for him when all we'll see after him are Rincon and Nathan.  Any reasons why couldn't have thrown 4 less innings last year?  Now nobody will have a damn rookie card!
Projections:
Record (14-9) ERA (3.92) IPA (190) SHO (1!)

My Purpose

In creating this blog I hope to join the many dedicated fans devoted to discussing the local sport seen in our little state.  More than 90% of my entries will focus on the Twins, however I will devote some time in talking about the Vikings and the sad state of the University of Minnesota sports.  Though the Minnesota faithful have encountered their fair share of disappointment in the early stages of this young century, I tend to side towards cautious optimism when it comes to sports.  Despite everything...:
2000- Vikings lose to Giants in NFC Championship Game
2002- Twins lose to Angels in ALCS
2003- Wild loose to Mighty Ducks in third round of Playoffs
2003- Twins lose to Yankees in ALDS
2004- Twins lose to Yankees in ALDS
2004- Timberwolves lose to Lakers in Conference Finals
2004- Vikings lose to Eagles in the Second Round of the Playoffs

Anyways, those are just some of the examples.  There has been some seriously talented teams here so far this decade, but each team has teased us hopeful Minnesotans and fallen short of greatness.

What I'd like to do to begin my blogging career is to take an in-depth look at the Twins plans for the 2006 season.  Starting tomorrow I will take an look at the Twins pitchers, looking at strategies for both the rotation and the bullpen.  I will continue on the rest of the week looking at the rest of the Twins roster.  From there the options are endless.  I don't plan on analyzing every game everyday, but rather I'd like to address important issues as they develop throughout the season.  I'm also hoping to visit some friends at my old college in upstate New York.  While there I'd like to do some in-depth coverage of the Rochester Redwings, as I have seen very few Minor League games in my life.

So for those who are reading this first entry I invite you to come back the rest of this week and read my thoughts and decide my worthiness and savvy within the blogger community.