Introduction to Starting Rotation
As far as what were looking at going into spring training, we have four pitchers coming back. Santana will probably be taking the lead this year followed by Radke, Silva and surprisingly the return of Kyle Lohse. The fifth spot is supposedly up for grabs. To me there's no contest. Coming into spring training Gardenhire has been moaning about his unwillingness to have two rookie pitchers in the rotation. Technically Scott Baker is not a rookie but Gardenhire knows that of course. Plus, for what I will explain later, Baker proved that he is not a normal rookie buy any means. I will analyze our current rotation and what should be expected from each. My model, which I do not fully expect to occur, has Carlos Silva as the number 2 guy and has Kyle Lohse departing at the All Star break. Today I'll do the rotation. After that I'll look at the bullpen. After that I'll look at our starting lineup. Then finally I'll look at the bench and who we'll want to see some cameo appearances from this season. As a general rule I'll post any stat that I believe to be relevant to that players success.
2006 Rotation
1) Johan Santana LHP
2) Carlos Silva RHP
3) Brad Radke RHP
4) Kyle Lohse RHP/Francisco Liriano LHP
5) Scott Baker RHP
Johan Santana
Lets face it, Johan has been the best pitcher in the American League that past two seasons. Arguably he's the best pitcher in baseball. Somehow however the only game I went to last year in which he pitched he got his worst shelling all year giving up 7 ER in 5 Inn against Toronto. Anyways, his 16-7 record by no means told the story of his 2005 campaign. Since the blogging community has already published enough pieces on why he should have won the Cy Young I think we can lay that issue to rest. The fact is though that he had 7 no decisions in starts where he pitched 6 or more innings and gave up less than 3 earned runs. The last three of those no decisions were games where he pitched 7 or more innings and gave up a measly run each outing. On top of all that he took on 3 loses where he gave up only 2 earned runs. Long story short, if our offense is only a bit improved this year, we should see 20 wins again from him. What most excites me is the durability he's shown averaging 230 innings the last two years. I fully expect Johan to come back out this year inspired, knowing himself that he really deserved the Cy Young last year. Hopefully that inspiration will lead to better first half numbers, and the same performance down the stretch. Maybe the illusive career achievement of a no hitter might be in the cards for Johan this year.
Projections:
Record (22-5) ERA (2.76) SHO (4)
Carlos Silva
In my mind Silva's season last year was absolutely remarkable. Though some may disagree I believe Silva was our most consistent pitcher last year. When he takes the hill you can basically expect he's going to go at least 7 innings and give up 4 or less runs in the process. I think what gets us all excited is to think what he can do with a healthy knee. My only concern would be that mentally he can't relax at all, he can be tempted to not maintain the same level of focus and intensity he had with the knee problems. I know Brad is our franchise pitcher, but in my mind Silva has earned this spot and you know if he stays healthy he's just going to eat innings. Maybe even compete with Santana for the lion-share of innings. The other thing that I really like about Silva is that he's basically doing this all with one pitch, his sinker or two seemer (depending on whose doing the explanation). After what you see guys like A.J. Burnett are getting for money, you gotta think we could can keep Silva around for awhile. Because the thing is that he doesn't really have the stuff teams are looking for when they're offering big contracts. He doesn't have an upper 90's fastball, and he doesn't really have a big strikeout pitch, because frankly he's not looking to strike you out. What I'm getting at is that my thought is that the Twins can potentially keep him around for some time because his market value should remain very reasonable. If not somebody please correct me. Anyways expect great things for him this year.
Projections:
Record (16-8) ERA (3.62) CG (5) BB (19)
Brad Radke
I don't believe I'll be the first to voice my concern of Brad Radke. Somebody told me last year that Brad turned down a contract offer from the Red Sox to finish his career in Minnesota. As much as I like Brad makes you wonder if it would have been better for him to go there, probably would've been an 18 game winner last year. Because frankly 9 wins last year... million dollars per win is kind of expensive. And in all honesty Brad had a pretty good year. His ERA was sitting nice at 3.71 going into September when his shoulder undoubtedly affected his performance. As far as next year is concerned I might too terribly frightened if his shoulder forces him to shut down at some point during the year, I'm excited to see some of these younger guys and what they can do. We all know there's talent waiting. The thing that has always bothered me about Brad is that he's not really the fierce competitor type. He's always been the duty type pitcher who goes out onto the mound and does his duty, which I guess each team needs. I guess I kind of project onto Brad because in many ways I'm like him, the duty type. But I've always wanted to be the guy pumping my fist every time I get the strikeout to end the inning... Anyways next year I fully expect Brad to be Brad, he'll still give up home runs and most of his ERA will come from the first two innings on the mound. But overall, if his shoulder cooperates, I expect him to try to finish his career with some style points. He'll probably be the number two starter, but I believe number three would take some stress off his shoulder. And really in a good pitching staff like our own he is a number 3 type, always double digits in wins and loses, career 4.22 ERA. Anyways, hope for the best for Brad, are you really going to retire at 33?
Projections (assuming full season):
Record (14-12) ERA (4.23)
Kyle Lohse:
There's been a lot of talk this year about Kyle's career stats looking a lot like Jon Garland's numbers except Kyle's a bit older. Anyways the thought is that Kyle might have a break out year. For me, I'm not really a Kyle Lohse believer yet. Last year I was usually backing Lohse when my father and I were arguing after he said that Mays was a better pitcher. The good thing about Lohse is there's still a lot of upside because he's young and he's got the tools. The other thing I liked last year that others didn't seem to appreciate was his competitive nature exemplified in his confrontation with Gardenhire's door. The thing I didn't like about Kyle compared to in years past is that he wasn't as much fun to watch. Many times it boiled down to whether or not the umpire was going to give him the outside corner. The direction Anderson seems to be taking Lohse is to more of a control pitcher. An in all honesty, this style being developed did bring Kyle is best season ERA and his walk total was down significantly from the year before. For me though, I'm not a fan, and the looks of it neither was Kyle. On the downside last year, Kyle ended up throwing a lot of pitches to each batter and as a result, rarely went past the six inning. Hence the 179 innings last year. Which in all honesty is pretty good for a number four starter. But what we also saw were less strikeouts. Many of the announcers last year discussed how Kyle doesn't have an "out pitch." Frankly I disagree, I've seen him before throw in a good mix of pitches and then find ways to get guys swinging. He'll obviously never be a 200k a year guy but that doesn't mean he can't pass 100k by a couple dozen. Anyways, Kyle in many ways will be a wild card again this year. My firm belief is that the the direction Anderson is taking him now, ultimately is not the most successful. Anyone want to debate me on this, I'm ready for it. Anyways, we'll see what 2006 holds for Kyle. Personally I though he was expendable after last year, especially now that he's going to be making close to 4 million. And I do think is trade value is pretty decent. I do believe that there's a good chance that Terry Ryan's thinking is similar to my own in that his value will be pretty high come the All Star break, and he'll be traded for a good bat or a couple hitting prospects. Because frankly, leaving all our pitching talent in the minors like this is borderline irresponsible. After the season's over I do expect Lohse will have breached the 4.00 ERA mark.
Projections (pending mid-season trade):
Record (6-4) ERA (4.27)
Francisco Liriano:
For the first half of the season I have Liriano spending time in the bullpen as the power lefty. Of the three "veterans" we've signed to deals the only one I see having a shot is Gabe White and he's not going to come in and get strikeouts like Liriano can. Gardenhire has voiced his concerns about Liriano not being able to adapt back and forth from starting and relief. I look at it this way, you developed a good model with Santana, why change it? We all know Liriano has tremendous stuff. Everything he throws is hard, I don't think he'll be throwing many pitches below 85 mph. My main concern watching Liriano last year is the location of his fastball. His slider was devastating and will probably be his main strikeout pitch, and his change-up looks to be pretty good so far. Concerning his fastball, 97mph is pretty damn good coming from the left side, but you really have to be careful at the major league level. And i really think this is the main issue. In the minors most hitters will take a big swing and miss against that high fastball. At the major league level there's a decent chance that pitch is going over a fence. In my mind to send Liriano back to the minors will be detrimental to his development because it will allow him to fall back on old habits. If he goes to the bullpen, he will be forced to learn how to locate his fastball at the major league level. For the first half of the season when he's in the bullpen I recommend long relief whenever possible and at least three spot starts to make sure he doesn't lose his stamina. By the all star break I really like to get him into Lohse's spot. Baker can stay at number five to prevent two similar lefties from pitching after one another. It will be a good season for Liriano if he can accumulate close to 150 innings. What I'm looking for would be something similar to Santana in 2003, where Liriano would get almost 20 starts and then have something like 50 appearances. And maybe if he does well enough at both facets, he'll have a good consideration for Rookie of the Year. Unlikely however considering competition, he would probably have to have a good year in a starter roll almost the entire season. Anyways go Liriano!
Projections:
Record (11-5) ERA (3.56) IPA (145) K/9 (10.7)
Scott Baker
This guy has earned every right to be in the starting rotation next year. In 9 starts last year, he had only 2 rough starts and posted an outstanding 3.35 ERA. If he can keep that kind of consistency ratio, we will quickly find that he is no number 5 starter. Once he gets some experience under his belt, I would easily project him out to be a number 2 starter. However, I hope Silva doesn't get out of the way for awhile. In terms of next year I would expect that another 3.35 ERA is extreme wishful thinking, but I would actually be surprised if he didn't post a sub 4.00 ERA. I like his pitch selection and I like his control so far. He'll need some work on his control yet, as shown by Oakland whose hitters know how to work counts. My only other concern was his fly ball to ground ball ratio. Hopefully that doesn't develop into an issue for him. For 2006 I do expect them to coddle him with his pitch counts, so it will be a very good day for him when all we'll see after him are Rincon and Nathan. Any reasons why couldn't have thrown 4 less innings last year? Now nobody will have a damn rookie card!
Projections:
Record (14-9) ERA (3.92) IPA (190) SHO (1!)
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