2006 Bench Warmers

Introduction
For me, deciding who the bench players were going to be this year was very difficult.  Although I may know in my mind who is going to be on the bench, there exist the biggest discrepancy here on who I believe I value in these situations and who management values.  This year our benches role should be changed quite a bit.  In 2005, guys on the bench actually played quite regularly.  Gardenhire, often times didn't have a lot of patience in developing certain youth on the team, so questionably capable veterans were available when Gardy wanted to display his annoyance.  In 2006 the starting 9 should be much improved and a lot more comfortable.  As a result, he bench this year will probably be employing more traditional roles.  This becomes quite apparent after the signing of Ruben Sierra.  Ruben Sierra is a true pinch hitter. Pinch hitter's last year were mostly young guys getting hacks and being made foolish in the process.  Putting that duty on the shoulders of guys like Terry Tiffee, wasn't exactly a formula for success so some things have changed.  What annoyed me is that by putting guys like that in those type of situations, it might be an attempt at character building, but I think it destroys whatever potential they might have had because it doesn't give them a chance to develop any confidence unless they had an overload of it in the first place.  Anyways, I don't really feel too pressured in my analysis of who's going to be on the bench because frankly we probably won't see as much of them in 2006 as we did last year.  Also, in assessing these guys I actually found myself using stats more, and I guess it makes sense considering 2006 will be a much bigger year for situational usage.

2006 Bench
DH/PH Ruben Sierra
C Mike Redmond
IF Juan Castro
IF Nick Punto
IF/OF Michael Cuddyer

Ruben Sierra
While I'm not particularly enthused about the signing of Ruben Sierra, it really doesn't bother me much.  And by no means am I surprised by the signing, except for the fact that I thought Ryan was done making moves this off-season.  But basically this is the type of guy Gardenhire wanted and Terry Ryan followed his managers recommendations.  Sierra has remade the second half of his career as a pinch hitter.  And at forty that's exactly what we need from him.  Personally when the Twins talked about getting another left-handed power bat for late game situations (essentially another DH type), I wanted Erubiel Durazo.  Yes he struggled in 2005 but he's still fairly young and has real good pop in his bat.  But all things considered with the year he had in 2004 he's probably too expensive, and if he did perform at his best Rondell White would become useless and we'd have a dilemma.  Basically as I mentioned before, Sierra will be one of Gardy's guys.  Somebody who he believes he can count on, someone who's been around awhile and has a decent history of coming through in key situations.  Sierra is forty and he's seen a lot of pitching, so he can also become another hitting coach considering Vavra doesn't have a lot of knowledge about major league pitchers.  One thing that we did lack last year in the dugout was a guy like this to calm down the youngin's when things are tough.  So even if Sierra has a mediocre spring training, baring any injury he should make the roster.  While the Twins probably wont use him as much as the Yankees have over the past two seasons, Sierra should contribute and even win a couple games for us.
Projections:
AB (70) BA (.253) HR (3) RBI (18)

Mike Redmond
I have to say that this guy probably had the single season best performance by a back-up catcher in recent Twins history.  Do I think he will replicate it in 2006?  Defensively?  Yes.  Offensively?  Probably not, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.  Obviously Redmond has more experience and still calls a better game them Mauer, but when Mauer was on the bench in 2006 we actually didn't lose a whole ton at the plate when Redmond was hitting.  After watching all are young ones falter in important situation and then seeing what Redmond did in situational hitting was really refreshing.  With the veteran catchers like we've had recently in guys like Tom Prince and Henry Blanco, you were getting two things.  One you knew they were going to call a great game, and two while neither hit for average, you knew you were going to get the occasional dramatic homerun that won games.  Because essentially, guys like that were all about supporting their pitchers.  Redmond is pretty much the same, but he brings a new intensity to the game.  Obviously his average was amazing compared to what he had done in the past, but the way he collected RBI's with the time he spent at the plate was essential.  You almost wonder why Redmond wasn't used as an occasional DH... (not really but considering the struggles last year it doesn't sound so silly).  Redmond hit an incredible .452 BA with RISP.  What I think is also worth mentioning is that he it .345 against lefties and .397 when away.  Why I mention these is that is role is basically set for next year.  Mauer struggles some against lefties (not really though) and obviously he's a hometown boy so he should play when he's at home.  So basically Redmond should play mostly away games when a lefty is on the mound.  Course that wont necessarily be the case, but it does make sense.  The other thing that I'd like to quickly mention about Redmond, is that though the sample size is small he threw out a much higher percentage of potential base stealers then he ever did in any season with Florida.  And I'm wondering if that's just a testament to how much better most national leaguers are at base-stealing.  Anyways, hopefully Redmond's recuperated from that little injury at the end of the last year and he's good to go.  We are truly blessed to have a guy like this on our roster.
Projections:
G (37) BA (.281) BA w/ RISP (.387)

Juan Castro
Despite the fact that I believe that Juan's over-payed and he'll become even more over-payed in 2006 because his particular skills will become less needed, I do like the guy quite a bit.  He's kind of fun to watch at the plate because you aren't expecting to be impressed but sometimes you are.  Obviously he was signed on as insurance for Bartlett and that suspicion was justified when Bartlett struggled early (mostly offensively).  He has a steady glove and a good arm, but not a whole lot of range as lots of people like to point out.  He's a good SS and a capable back up for 3B and 2B.  A lot of emphasize coming into last year was put on his soft bat and his lack of any speed as a SS.  Castro did prove last year that he did have a bit of a soft bat, but not as soft as it had been in years past.  Yes, Castro was often victim to the "0"fer phenomenon, but he proved to be reliable in key situations.  Even with is lack of playing time, Castro was among the American League leaders in sacrifice hits.  Similarly, he hit an impressive .308 BA with RISP.  On the other hand, Castro is pathetic when nobodies on base hitting a weak .187. I encourage anyone to look at all of Castro's situational stats from last year, it really gave me a good impression of what a professional hitter he's become and how his approach changes with every different situation. So essentially Castro does make a case for what he will mostly be used for in 2006.  He will be a capable late inning back up, who will provide a steady glove and even the ability to provide a couple game winning hits.  On days when for whatever reason either Bartlett, Castillo and even Batista cannot figure it out, I feel comfortable with Castro coming in the game. 
Projections:
G (56) AB (98) BA (.265)

Nick Punto
Ugh...  When I was at TwinsFest I have to say that for some reason nine out of ten times that I'd look up at the big screens they were showing highlights of Punto from last season.  From that and the impression I've gotten from Twins management it really seems that Punto is going to be given another shot to become an integral part of this baseball team.  Personally, last year I can't really remember if I spent more time yelling at this guy or Joe Mays.  As I continue to write on this site you will come to understand my lack of patience for little Nicholas Punto.  My opinion of him can basically be summed up in an experience I had last year.  In late June I was watching ESPN and for once the anchors were talking about the Twins (I know a small money team imagine that!).  Anyways, they were discussing what was starting to become a major flaw for the 2006 Twins: their lack of run production.  The line that got me was one of the anchors suggested that "the Twins are sorely missing the offensive production of their second basemen."  Basically I did a double take, and literally ask the TV if he was actually referring to Punto.  Granted Punto at the time was hitting like .290 something but I knew better.  When he did come back he proved to me again that he has no business being on a major league roster.  What guys like Gardenhire use as bragging points for Punto are nowhere near legitimate in my mind.  I will deconstruct them for you.  Punto is fast. Well so what if your not able to effectively use your speed.  Punto may have stolen 13 bases, but he also got caught 8 times.  Further, I can recall on several occasions Punto over assuming his abilities and often finding himself caught in-between bases.  Basically, Punto may be fast, but he'd probably run into a brick wall if you told him to.  Punto can bunt.  Yes he can bunt, I can even remember him winning the game a couple times on a bunt.  On the other hand I can also remember him being so incapable of putting the ball on the turf he'd often foul out with two strikes.  So again not an effective bunter after all.  As far as the other things go, yes Punto is a switch hitter but so is Luis Rodriguez and Rodriguez hit 30 points higher than Punto.  More importantly Rodriguez proved he had good plate discipline and hit .375 with RISP while Nick managed a pathetic .204.  Overall, Luis Rodriguez proved that he is better or at least matched Punto in every facet of the game besides speed.  And if your so committed to having someone with speed of the bench at least go with someone like Jason Tyner  who has prooven extremely effective in stealing bases throughout his career (49SB/10CS).  And personally I wouldn't be worried having another outfielder because with Castro and Cuddyer (both million plus contracts I might add) we would be covered in backing up the infield.
Projections:
G (100) AB (??) BA (.214) OBP (.267) SB (11) CS (7)

Michael Cuddyer
Though I think last year was silly with everyone blaming all our troubles on Cuddyer, he has yet to prove that he can be a starter.  Soon to be 27, Cuddyer's getting to be a little old to be called a prospect anymore.  One of the things that I found most interesting in looking at Cuddyer's stats from last year, was that his batting average was literally up and down each month (apr ,205, may .310, jun. 250, jul .296, aug .224, sep .308), which is really a testament to how he hasn't figured out how to preform consistently in his own head.  Back when he was going through the system he was projected to be a .280 hitter who would also provide 20 plus homeruns.  The last two years he's posted a BA of .263 and 12 HR both years.  I assume 2006 is his last year to try to make himself into more than just a utility player with decent playing time.  With Ford and Kubel to battle out right field with, he's going to have to do really well during spring training.  However, with the tendencies he's shown over the past couple of years I really don't see it happening.  Last year he did well enough with no pressure, but hit only .204 with RISP.  Similarly, all his homeruns came when a base-runner was no further than first base and the story is mostly the same with his other extra base hits.  The best offensive performance I witnessed last year of Michael's came on September 22nd against Oakland.  That day he was tearing it up and really showed why this franchise has always been so high on him.  He had 4 hits and a walk, 3 doubles and a homerun.  Great day yes, but you would think with so many extra base hits he'd amount a whole ton of RBI's.  He amounted four.  While that is a reminder of how bad the 2005 Twins were at getting on base, it shows Michael's story and how he'll never be clutch.  And while being clutch is sometimes overrated, being completely inept is not (ie all the grounding into double plays when it counts).  As far as 2006 is concerned, there is a definite role for Cuddyer.  He is a capable utility man even if he doesn't stand out at any particular position.  I can see Michael spending some time in right field, 2nd base and right now he's the only one who really has any experience at 1st base (Morneau can't play everyday).  I also think there's a slight possibility that he might get another shot at 3rd if Batista shows up and is absolutely pathetic.  Obviously most of his time in 2006 will come from starting in whichever position giving multiple guys a day of rest.  I do think he can be used in some late game situations as a pinch hitter who LEADS OFF the inning and then makes his way into the field after an at-bat.  He's also shown that he's a good hitter down the stretch in September.  Somewhat surprising is that he has 37 AB in the post-season and has posted a .378 BA.  Although somewhat the same story in that he has 14 hits but only 4 RBI's.  Overall, another wild card who could prove to be valuable if he gets his act together.  If he's used how I just described, his numbers will actually be pretty reasonable.
Projections:
G (92) BA (.271) OBP (.330) HR (9) 2B (16)

Other Stuff

• I was planning on talking about more than just the bench today, but I found I actually had a lot to say about each player, so I'll try to post at some point this weekend about who we can expect some cameo's this season, or at least who deserves some looks.
• I've been reading a lot of stuff at twinkietown.com lately, I think jclund did a good job of analyzing the situation of the lead off man.  I too believe that Shannon will probably start there, but hopefully it will become obvious that Castillo should take over because he'll be getting on-base so much and the speed factor.  Also something that's been really surprising, especially with all the talk on the 25-man roster, is the number of people who think Kubel's going to start the season in RF.  While I think he's probably the best player, I'd like to reiterate what an amazing comeback that would be considering two things.  He hasn't played competitive ball in a year and his emergence only happened in 2004.  Before that, he really wasn't considered a top prospect.  Anyways, I'm certainly willing to have him prove me wrong, but I think it'll be awhile before he sees regular play with the Twins.
• I don't know if this is a big problem usually for guys just starting a blog, but so far I've posted quite a few entries and I've only received one comment.  And though I see that people are visiting my site, it would be nice to get some more feedback.  It would be nice to know that my writing is worthwhile in that I'm not blurting out what dozens of others have already stated before me.  Original thought is what I'm going for.  Anyways, thanks to those of you who have been curious enough to read some of my stuff!

Comments

[Nick N.]

Ouch, those are awfully low projections for Punto. I understand your qualms with his play, how you could possibly see him performing worse offensively than Juan Castro? Punto is still fairly young and has upside unlike Castro, and he has the tools to be a very productive bench player. He is a versatile fielder, he is a good bunter (despite what a lot of people may think), and he is the only guy on the bench who can pinch-run if Ford is starting in RF. The problem with bringing a guy like Tyner on the Major League roster for such a task is that it leaves the team with too many outfielders and not enough infielders. With the questionable Tony Batista at third base and the young Jason Bartlett and Justin Morneau manning short and first, infield depth is going to be key.

[Jeff]

Inspired by your precitions, I decided to come up with some of my own, to see what they look like come the end of September. If White and Castillo both play 150 games this year, we make the playoffs. Jeff

Stewart: 137 Games .309 61RBIs 72RUNS 12Hrs 12SB
Castillo:151 Games .333 41RBIs 84RUNS 2Hrs 29SB
Mauer: 140 Games .301 77RBIs 62RUNS 18Hrs 9 SB
White: 117 Games .275 80RBIs 51RUNS 22Hrs 6 SB
Hunter: 157 Games .261 75RBIs 80RUNS 24Hrs 27SB
Morneau: 152 Games .265 98RBIs 70RUNS 29Hrs 0 SB
Batista: 160 Games .241 72RBIs 64RUNS 20Hrs 10SB
Ford: 128 Games .277 54RBIs 49RUNS 12Hrs 20SB
Bartlett:100 Games .255 39RBIs 39RUNS 5 Hrs 17SB

Castro: 41 Games .233 22RBIs 10RUNS 2 Hrs 1 SB
Sierra: 50 Games .241 20RBIs 21RUNS 8 Hrs 0 SB
Cuddyer: 45 Games .256 34RBIs 25RUN 7 Hrs 4 SB
Redmond: 39 Games .289 17RBIs 14RUN 0 Hrs 0 SB
Punto: 44 Games .250 17RBIs 19RUN 2 Hrs 12SB

Santana: 34 Games 2.55ERA 21W 5L 251Ks 4SHO
Radke: 25 Games 4.10ERA 10W 10L 150Ks 1SHO
Silva: 34 Games 3.42ERA 16W 9L 135Ks 1SHO
Lohse: 32 Games 4.22ERA 13W 12L 167Ks 0SHO
Baker: 33 Games 3.89ERA 14W 8L 188Ks 1SHO

Nathan: 65 Games 2.22ERA 4W 2L 91Ks 40 SV
Rincon: 71 Games 2.77ERA 5W 4L 100Ks 0 SV
Crain: 55 Games 3.01ERA 6W 2L 109Ks 1 SV
May: 44 Games 4.49ERA 2W 7L 69Ks 0 SV
Guerrier: 50 Games 3.50ERA 2W 4L 77Ks 0 SV
Reyes: 38 Games 5.01ERA 1W 4L 44Ks 0 SV

[Lou]

Howdy

Just wanted to let you know I do read your site daily (or at least when you post, since you have started this. I also am a religious BatGirl (LOVE her) and Gleeman reader. I think your indepth analysis are unique and worth your (our) time.

I've been an avid Twins fan, well, obsessed would be more like it, ever since '86. Plus the fact that I've been in CA for over 10 years, ie not in MN, adds to my comittment.

Not all of us have time to do the kind of analysis you folks do, so it is nice to get this kind of insight from other faithful fans.

Anyway, keep up the good work on your new project.

[Twinsboy]

Keep up the good work! I do like reading your site, so keep it up!

And, I have my own blog about this stuff, and would apprieciate some more readers. Click on my name.

[Josh]

I like your stuff. I think your projections are pretty accurate, although I expect to see Torii come real close to 30-30 in his big contract year. My thoughts have been that Lohse is gone midseason as well. I think if the Twins falter early on, Stewart could be in a new uniform as well. Good call on Willie Eyre... he's my pick to make the pen. Keep up the good work and I enjoy your site.