2006 Starting Lineup

Introduction
There's has been a lot of discussion lately concerning the status of the roster and the lineup and it's about time I gave my opinion of the overall picture.  Some things have changed slightly in my outlook since the signing of Ruben Sierra, but not dramatically obviously.  The only glove that Sierra will be carrying around in 2006 will be his batting glove.  While most of us are pretty comfortable about who will be starting in what positions, the biggest challenge at this point will be to determine the batting order.  Though many in the Twins community were disappointed not to see some bigger name players among the list of acquisitions this year, we all have to admit the offense looks a lot better.  I especially am impressed with Terry Ryan's unwillingness to stray from what has brought the Twins success over the years, defense and pitching.  The three biggest acquisitions this season were Luis Castillo, Tony Batista, and Rondell White.  Castillo and White are both fine players in that they're both experienced professional hitters.  But more importantly, in terms of defense you can see Ryan's determination in acquiring Castillo not only for his on base percentage but for his three time gold glove skills.  We can also see Ryan's commitment to defense in his pursuit of Hank Blalock of Texas.  Obviously the price was too high and Ryan was unwilling to forfeit our future in Liriano and/or Baker.  This is important to note, that though our defense was mediocre last year, our pitching was the only reason we were above .500 in 2005.  In Ryan's system, pitching is first, defense is second.  Losing Liriano or Baker would have been a breach of that priority system.  Since Blalock didn't work out, Ryan went out and found Batista.  Though I wouldn't label Batista as a professional hitter he does have quite a bit of experience in driving runs in and he has a solid glove despite is lack of range.  So if Batista holds up his end of the bargain going into spring training, there only seems to be one question.  And that is who will be playing right field.  Before I go into my lineup I'd like to introduce a little something called the Ulger Effect.

The Ulger Effect:
Keep in mind that this is only a theory, but I'd like to go over what I've come up with.  Most can agree that Scott Ulger has really not done much over the past couple years as hitting coach to deserve any merit.  But what I'd like to show is the negative effect that he may very well be responsible for in the Twins offense.  The 2006 season was marked with frustration and basic ineptness as the Twins were unable to score runs.  What was really noticeable for me was the drop in basic batting average of the developing youth and even some of the seasoned veterans on the team.  Many people blamed that the struggles these individuals encountered were due to lack of protection throughout the lineup I think it's deeper than that.  Morneau was one of the individuals most effected.  After having a breakout half season in 2004, in 2005 he struggled, quite horrifically in some instances.  In 2004 Justin hit a respectable .271 but last year he hit only .239.  Not as noticeable but still significant, in 2004 Lew Ford hit .299 but last year he hit only .264.  Also among those effected was Jacque Jones who in 2003 hit exactly .300 but in the last two years he's posted marks of .254 and .249.  Even Matthew Lecroy who it .287 in 2003 has dropped off.  What seems to be happening here is a real negative decline in the hitting philosophy.  Coming out of the minors, these guys have great approaches at the plate but then the more it seems that they are exposed to Ulger and his ways, the more they are effected.  Even some like Shannon Stewart seemed to be effected by this trend.  In his first year and a half with the Twins Shannon hit well over .300, but last year he struggled to hit .274.  What this is boiling down to for me is that exposure to Ulger's philosophy is really messing with these guys approaches at the plate.  Depending on how well ingrained these guys previous philosophy's are, the effects seem to be taking their toll.  Now granted I will not ignore that there are other contributing factors to their struggles, but I for one am very happy with the Vavra choice.  Hopefully this guy will be able to bring back the philosophies of old (that is the philosophies that they were originally taught in the minors) and reinvigorate the Twins lineup.

My 2006 Lineup

1) Luis Castillo 2B
2) Shannon Stewart LF
3) Joe Mauer C
4) Rondell White DH
5) Justin Morneau 1B
6) Torii Hunter CF
7) Tony Batista 3B
8) Lew Ford/ Jason Kubel RF
9) Jason Bartlett SS

Luis Castillo
In my mind Castillo is a no brainer to bat first in the lineup.  Though Gardenhire will probably start the season with Shannon batting first, I hope he eventually figures it out.  So why would I bat Castillo ahead of Stewart?  Well there are several things.  Though many believe that Castillo has lost most of his speed due to injuries and age, I believe they are greatly over exaggerating.  If in 2006, Castillo proves to be completely recovered from his hip and thigh problems, I believe he can return to be a formidable base stealer.  The biggest decline in his stolen bases occurred not because of injuries and age but rather, the breakout of Juan Pierre in 2003 as the new lead off man for the Marlins.  That year, Castillo's base-running failed to adjust to it's new role and while he stole 21 bases he was also caught 19 times.  In 2004, Castillo proved what he has throughout his entire career, his ability to adapt and his willingness to improve his game.  That year he stole 21 bases again but was only caught 4 times.  2005 of course was marked by injuries, so basestealing wasn't really apart of Castillo's game but getting on base was.  While Castillo has shown marked improvement in his ability to get on base during his career, 2005 was huge because he had 2 BB's for every strikeout and posted a .391 on base percentage in the process.  Castillo should bat first for the Twins because of his extreme ability to get on base.  If Castillo's not beating the ball into the turf for singles, we can count on him to work the count very well and to even draw walks when necessary.   Once on base, he'll be a treat to steal and at the very least to get those extra bases on singles and doubles.
Projections:
G (145) BA (.303) OBP (.380) R (94) SB (28) CS (7)

Shannon Stewart
Though during his prime Shannon was the ultimate lead off man, I really think he's developed (from age) into an ideal #2 hitter.  Shannon has always hit for average, has always gotten on base.  During his earlier years though, Shannon was a speedster and stole 51 bases at one point.  From what we've seen in Minnesota that speed is all but gone.  Even with a .274 average last year, Shannon was our most professional hitter.  Gardenhire at one point even tried moving Shannon to the 3 hole in an attempt to boost production.  Shannon is the best choice for the 2 hole next year, because you know he's going to provide some decent pop hitting his fair share of doubles and his standard dozen homeruns, and you know if you need him to hit a ground-ball to the right side of the infield, he'll probably do it.  And if he does return to his .300 BA form, that would be all the better.  I do believe he his showing his age much more than Castillo.  But in all fairness, Stewart is a great hitter and he's an above average outfield and after all it is a contract year.
G (139) BA (.287) OBP (.362) R (80) RBI (51)

Joe Mauer
Joe was one of the few shinning stars in the 2005 campaign.  I imagine, he will only build on his marks this year.  Joe should really begin developing into the number 3 hole.  With both Castillo and Stewart in front of him, Joe will be seeing many more RBI opportunities.  And though I may have been a bit disappointed with Joe's lack of HR's last year at times he was a double machine and I have absolutely no problems with that.  The biggest thing for Joe as he develops his power will be pulling the ball.  One of Mauer's greatest attributes is his patience and his willingness to hit the ball to all fields.  But if you'll notice his hit chart from last year, the closes thing did to pulling the ball on any of his extra base hits was right-center.  If Mauer wants to become a power threat, he'll have to be willing to pull the ball.  Although, personally I don't believe that's a direction he needs to head.  With his current philosophy at the plate he is one of the league leaders in pitches taken.  He works counts really well and he waits for pitches he can drive.  The only problem with him taking the BB last year was that there was nobody behind him that could consistently drive him in.  Mauer also caught a lot of people by surprise last year in his ability to steal a couple bases when circumstances require.  Beyond his offense, it's great to know that Mauer and Redmond both are developing a reputation as great defenders.  Together they were among league leaders in throwing guys out on the base paths.  The American League over the past couple years has shown greater emphasis on basestealing.  Which has been shown through the success of Podsednik in Chicago and Figgins in Anaheim.  If the Twins catcher tandem can take that element away from the game of our opponents that will be a big plus. 
Projections:
G (140) BA (.307) RBI (75) 2B (39) HR (12)

Rondell White
From my impressions of White over the weekend at TwinsFest, it seems that he is a stand-up guy and should add a great presence to the club house.  Every time I looked his direction he was smiling or laughing.  From a professional standpoint you really feel for the guy because he's consistently put up good numbers but he always finds ways to get hurt.  When he went down in 2005 he was hitting .313 and had amounted 53 RBI's in 97 games.  What was most telling for me is that he was tied with Gary Sheffield at 4th in the American League with a BA of .364 with runners in scoring position.  Pretty impressive considering present company.  In my mind that makes him the undeniable candidate to be in the cleanup spot.  Though he's known as somewhat of a free swinger, Rondell always has a high average.  And though he may not be a true power threat he still puts in a good amount of homeruns and doubles.  On top of that Rondell provides a good bat against lefties, which has always been a struggle for many Twins with the exception of guys like Matthew Lecroy of course.  2006 should hold some good things for White if he leaves his outfielders glove at home.  Hopefully he'll develop into his new role as a DH.
Projections:
G (150) BA (.285) RBI (96) HR (19)

Justin Morneau
Ah Justin, you have so much potential, please don't let it go to waste!  Obviously 2005 was a struggle for Morneau at the plate.  His defensive skills seem to be improving steadily.  Morneau of course was a catcher and then was almost immediately converted to a first basemen after the emergence of Joe Mauer.  At TwinsFest when I had Morneau sign his rookie card that has a picture of him catching, he got Rondell White's attention and started to reminisce a bit about catching.  I asked him if he missed it because I too have had my experience as a catcher, and he said he'd still be doing it if Joe wasn't in his way.  Anyways, though his offensive performance was frustrating through most of last year, Justin again showed his tremendous power.  He hit only 22 homeruns (not bad but we all know he has potential to double that figure) but he average over 400 feet per blast.  I think I might start a new hang out spot at the Twins games in the right field upper deck...  In all seriousness with the things he showed in a half a year in 2004, I am not at all surprised about what happened in 2005.  In 2004 Justin showed he could be a force and basically had every American League team scrambling to find answers to get him out.  In April Justin did really well, but what he didn't know was that he was being attacked by pitchers in an attempt to find his weaknesses already somewhat shown by the tape from the year before.  By May the pitching adjustment had been made, and Justin fell of immensely.  In 2006 it will be Justin's turn to adjust.  By now he should know his own weaknesses and he should know where he thrives.  With added protection around him in White in front and Hunter after, Justin will see better pitching on top of his own adjustments.  One suspicion I do have about Justin is that I don't believe he likes the confines of the dome.  Being Canadian born I think he much prefers playing outdoors.  Last year he hit .268 away and an almost equal mark when playing on grass.  Those numbers are not really evident in 2004, so I guess I really don't know.  We'll see...  I am actually going to dare myself to go out on a limb and say that Justin will have a more productive season than Thome in Chicago.
Projections:
G (158) BA (.265) HR (33) RBI (92) SLG (.510)

Torii Hunter
Over the past off-season I've read a lot pieces and opinions on why Torii is overrated and why his salary should be dumped in a trade, further many believed he was replaceable.  I disagree.  While Ford did provide somewhat effectively in Torii's absence last year, he did not come close to what Torii is capable.  Plus Torii's presence in the clubhouse is big.  He does more than lead by example in that he is one of the more vocal guys in the clubhouse. I will not go into the Morneau thing because it was an isolated incident that we have fans have really no experience in dealing with (ie it happens more than we know in the average clubhouse). Torii's skills in the outfield remain unmatched.  Sure sometimes Hunter will make the unnecessary dive and make the catch look harder than it was.  But for anyone who has actually played baseball and played in the outfield knows, sometimes making a planned dive or tumbling is a lot safer than trying to keep your balance and eventually falling face first into the turf.  And for a guy like Hunter who is comfortable with his skills, he's become very good at avoid possible injury situations.  Hunter did end up hurting himself in Fenway, but the set up of that park is extremely awkward and I think it's an injury waiting to happen unless it's your home-field.  Plus with all his aggressiveness and the fact that he's only had two major injuries in seven seasons, you really have to trust that he knows what he's doing.  As far as Torii's offensive production last year and in years past, I have no grievances.  In 2005 Hunter again proved that he's one of the top hitting center fielders posting a .815 OPS second only to Grady Sizemore in the American league.  More importantly, Hunter has always shown a willingness to develop his overall game to help the team.  Though the Twins had a good amount of speed last year Torii was the only one who pursued his ability to steal bases consistently without being thrown out.  He was actually on his way to breaching 30 SB for the first time in his career, which is impressive considering his age.  I think with Batista batting behind him or even Cuddyer if plans change, the fear alone of being hit into a double play should boost his basestealing marks.  The thing with Hunter is that he has the tools to be that 30HR-30SB guy, but I just don't think he has the consistency to hit 30HR's in a season.  He had his best shot in 2002 when he had 20 by the All-Star break, but obviously he came up one short.  All in all,  I look forward to Hunter's defensive production again in 2006 and I look forward to his bat remaining as our best power threat from the right side of the plate.
Projections:
G (140) BA (.272) OPS (.820) HR (26) SB (31) CS (9)

Tony Batista
I think that we all have to admit that this guy coming in is definitely the biggest wild card besides the possibilities with Kubel.  We know that Ryan pursued this guy not only because of his pop but because of his solid glove and arm at third.  While he doesn't have great range he is a good third basemen.  My biggest concern though is that he seems to have put on some weight, so we'll see if that affects his performance.  I remember watching as a kid his batting stance and trying to even mimic it a couple times when playing baseball with friends.  I have to say I'm a little excited to see it in person.  What Batista provides offensively are homeruns and RBI's.  You would think that a guy with a sub .250 BA would not get very many RBI's but Batista manages it.  The thing about Batista is that he doesn't strikeout a ton for a power hitter.  While he does have his fare share, he tends to make a lot of contact.  The thing that makes sense with his RBI totals is that he hits a lot of pop flies and a lot of ground balls with guys on base and they end up finding ways to score.  If Batista does hit this low in the lineup I'm really not expecting a lot of RBI's though.  I do however believe that his batting average wont be as bad as some may think although his OBP will probably remain pathetic.  Batista's career year came in 2000 when he was with Toronto (and Shannon Stewart) where he hit .263 with 41 HR's and 114 RBI's.  But that was in a lineup with a lot of protection and a lot of power, with 7 guys having 20 or more homeruns.  With this lineup and the potential we have, in theory pitchers should not be able to pick and choose who they can pitch to.  Batista will be one of the guys to benefit heavily from that.
Projections:
G (130) BA (.249) HR (27) RBI (72)

Lew Ford
For right now I'm putting Ford to start the season in RF.  I don't think they'll take the risk with Kubel to start the season unless he puts up a ridiculous performance during spring training.  In my mind Ford beats out Cuddyer in almost every perspective of the game.  Ford for one is a much better outfielder.  Though I wouldn't say he has a good arm, he's shown good range and the ability to play all three outfield positions.  In terms of hitting, Lew Ford's average fell back in 2005 but I expect him to readjust in 2006 plus he will be hitting 8th after all.  The only leg up that Cuddyer has on Ford is the power potential, I think that facet is nullified in the timeliness of Ford's homeruns.  Lat year 6 of his 7 homeruns were three run shots.  Besides, in 2004 Ford hit 15 HR which is better than any of Cuddyer's yearly marks.  But I should stop ranting about power because that's not what Ford's about.  Ford's about ripping doubles down the line, and is dangerous when pitched to on the inside half of the plate.  Ford's worst month by far last year was July when he hit a pathetic .173.  I think he finally made the adjustment to pitchers unwillingness to show him a lot on the inside part of the plate at the end of the year when he hit .299 in August and .283 in September.  The other thing I like about Ford is his speed.  I think with steadier play he'll become a better base stealer and you gotta like his ability to leg out some triples too.  And finally what people don't talk about much, is that I believe Ford has very good plate discipline which should show more in 2006. Overall I'm a big fan of Ford, he is one my top 5 Twins players that I've enjoyed watching play over the years and I do think he is worthy of an everyday job in the outfield.  But obviously with Kubel in the wings, it's hard to say.
Projections:
G (113) BA (.279) 2B (23) OBP (.360)
Jason Kubel
When Kubel does emerge in 2006 I see no problem starting him here in the lineup so he can gain some confidence, although if he does as well as I think he will there's a good chance he wont stay in the 8 hole for very long.  Right now it would be a real miracle for Kubel to come out and win the starting job or even be on the roster.  After having a banner year in 2004, Kubel when down and basically hasn't played competitive ball for a year.  May I also mention that Kubel was consider a pretty average prospect in the minors until his breakout in 2004.  In my estimation Kubel will start out in Rochester and by mid-season he'll be tearing it up so badly that the Twins will be forced to bring him up.  That will of course push Ford into the 4th outfielder role but with Stewart and Torii, he'll still see some decent playing time.  Kubel will then come in and not only show his high average abilities but also good amount of pop in his bat.  It think that his power will be much more impressive in a half year as opposed to if he were to be on the team the entire year.  I also really think that playing a half year in the majors will be most beneficial for his knee as you do not want to put a lot of stress on it after such a major injury.  Though I have yet to watch him play outfield, apparently he has a cannon, so that should be exciting too.
Projections:
G (75) BA (.312) OBP (.383) HR (11)

Jason Bartlett
Jason will be a big reason the Twins will be successful in 2006, not necessarily for his offensive production but for the defense he can provide.  The start of the season was a bit of a struggle for Bartlett, I think most of it was that he was nervous.  But after heading back to the minors for awhile, he really did come back inspired and I think he realized that defensively he's fully capable of starting at SS.  The biggest thing for Bartlett is his range.  With Castillo on the other side the Twins should be really tough up the middle and will end up really helping guys like Silva and Crain who thrive with good defense behind them.  In 2006 I don't expect Jason to start as an everyday player but as he continues to gain confidence I think he will be done the stretch.  Especially as the organization realizes how overrated guys like Punto are.  In terms of hitting 9th, Bartlett has the potential to be more (obviously with Gardenhire's wanting him to hit 2nd) but hitting here will help him the most in 2006.  With him hitting 9th, for me there's a guarantee that his isolated plate discipline will be at least .60 so he'll be on-base quite a bit.  And far as his BA, there's a huge range of possibility.  The range I think starts at .240 and could reach as high as .280.  He also brings a good deal of speed to the base-paths and I think he will have a good deal of practice on his bunting skills next year.  I think the biggest surprise for Bartlett will be the amount of extra base hits he will accumulate, including a decent amount of homeruns.  For a shortstop 6', 190lbs he's not very small.
Projections:
G (123) BA (.262) OBP (.329) SB (14) CS (6)

Other Stuff

• Ruben Sierra- The signing surprises me just a bit, because personally I thought he was done.  When Ryan talked about acquiring a left-handed stick of the bench, of course most of us jumped at Erubiel Durazo.  But in all honesty, Ryan has made a name for himself finding bargains that the blogging community (and everyone else for that matter) haven't really seen coming.  Plus Durazo is likely to be expensive and if he plays as well as he's capable, having Rondell White could become irrelevant.  Pending no injuries I fully expect Sierra to be on the roster, come April.  You know he'll be one of Gardy's guys, who he knows he can count on.
• TwinsFest-  Though it finished a couple days ago I'd like to finally post some of my thoughts.  This was my first year in attendance, I did enjoy it quite a bit.  I got some of my rookie cards signed which was nice.  Although it's been awhile since I've been in contact with card dealers, I was quickly reminded why I'm not a big fan.  Though I have a nice collection, most of my cards came from when I was little and tried to get the most cards for my weekly allowance.  Though I do have some good rookie cards like Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey, Jason Giambi, Ivan Rodriguez and Tom Glavine to name a few, dealers are more interested in cards with chunks of bat or jersey's pasted on them or cards of which only 50 were made which is very annoying.  Oh well.  My one bragging point is that I was able to find a Rondell White card from 1991 several years before his Major League debut.  On the back it lists him as a "best athlete" and a "five tools" player.  Although I don't think the throwing arm panned out.  Anyways I obviously got that signed.  Other things I liked about TwinsFest was the ability to meet some of the younger prospects who have yet to make it.  Perkins was there, Willie Eyre (who I think will make the bullpen), Adam Harben and Pat Neshek just to name a few.  I also spent some time watching and listening to the WCCO radio show.  Obviously ol' Sid was a major crutch to the old thing still talking about acquiring Mike Piazza with Terry Ryan and bringing up Shannon's foot which happened in 2004 not 2005.  But still it was good to hear from Gardy himself that Bartlett has the most potential at SS, and if he does well enough the spot should be his.  I also bought some regular season tickets when I was there on Friday.  I'm excited that I got some tickets to the first Yankee serious near their bullpen.  Maybe I'll yell at Farnsworth a couple times...  The other highlight is that I randomly bumped into Seth from sethspeaks.net.  I bumped into him on Friday by the prospects table.  I read basically every posting Seth does, his most recent was on the fantasy look at the AL East, which should be an interesting battle in 2006.
• Tomorrow I will finish my look at the 2006 Twins Roster, by going over the bench players.  I will also include a look at some players we might see throughout the season and possible September call-ups. 

Comments

[Twinsboy]

Nice job! I can't wait for spring training...

[Terry]

I think in mid season we will see kyle lohse traded to the rangers for hank balock and either fransico l. or matt g. take his spot in the pen and batista will be no more