CaseinTHEface: The Case for Twins Strategy: End of an Era? Part 2

The Bradke Effect

Walking out of the ondeck circle, you stroll lightly to the batters box. With your back foot you dig your spot into the dirt and proceed with your little pre-pitch quirks. Finally when your finished you look up and find that a man is staring at you from a little more than 60 feet away. His eyes don’t impose fear, but they don’t retain any fear either. If you’re Alex Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez and you’re looking for some sign of respect stepping in to the box, don’t count on it. Just a calm tranquility resides in those eyes, whether he’s just struck the previous batter out on a filthy change-up or given up a mammoth three-run homerun into the right field upper deck. Then it begins, the set, the signature high leg kick and then the flowing, effortless delivery. All is steady, all is calm, because it’s Brad Radke. And now your panicking because you don’t know the pitch but you know it’s a strike and you hate pitchers who always throw first pitch strikes. Brad’s arsenal is by no means overpowering but that’s exactly what he wants you to believe. He has a fastball that ranges between the upper 80’s and lower 90’s. He also has a curve and a slider, but it’s his changeup that makes Brad a threat. While Brad’s changeup does not have the same speed differential as that of Johan Santana, he’s still able to throw his without changing his arm speed. So bottom line, your going to look foolish if you don’t know it’s coming before he starts his wind up. It’s Brad’s changeup that allows him to strikeout 100 plus hitters a year, and it’s his changeup that keeps hitters honest against his less than impressive fastball. The other reason that Brad has stayed so effective over the years is his control. Not only does he throw all his pitches for strikes but he locates his fastball with utter precision, hitting corners at will.

The Brad Radke Story

Brad was actually born just a bit east of the Wisconsin, Minnesota border in Eau Claire. He was drafted in 1991 in the 8^th round as the 207^th overall pick by the Minnesota Twins. Once in the Twins system Brad moved up steadily showing the same skills that he has been recognized by his entire life. He stayed consistent and his control was phenomenal. After going 12-9 with a 2.66ERA in 1994 for the Twins AA affiliate, at the meager age of 22 and without a single start at the major league level, Brad became a starter for the Minnesota Twins in 1995. After an unimpressive start in 1995, Brad continued to make improvements and in his second year by lowering his ERA by 86 points and nearly doubling his strikeouts from the year before. Though I couldn’t tell you for certain, but I’m sure this was the point where he found his changeup. Then in 1997 the chance the Twins took on this young Wisconsin native paid its dividends. Brad Radke became the first 20 game winner since the glory days of 1991, more impressive was the fact that he did it in a season where the team only won 68 games. After 1997 Brad continued to pitch well, although not nearly as dominant as he had the year before. More importantly though, he remained consistent and durable, posting more than 200 innings each year. With the exception of 1997 Brad’s record reflected the struggles of the ball club. He continued to post double digits in both wins and loses, but he would not accumulate more wins than loses until the team’s resurgence beginning in 2001. Then in 2002, Brad experienced his first major injury and was out throughout the middle part of the season. Still, Brad proved his worth. Because, it was Brad who ended the famous Oakland 20 game winning streak with a 6 hit shutout on September 6^th and it was Brad who threw 3 postseason games giving up a mere 4 earned runs, in route to a 2-1 record. In 2003, Brad got back to his form posting a 14-10 record with a somewhat unimpressive 4.49ERA. The following year something came over Brad. Though he only posted an 11-8 record, Brad Radke had a career best 3.48 ERA. This was of course, masked by Johan Santana’s amazing second half run and consequent Cy Young performance. It was in 2004 that we first ran across the term low run support in our every day discussion of Brad Radke. In 2004 Brad recorded only 19 decisions in 34 starts, then again in 2005 he earned 21 decisions in 31 starts posting an ugly 9-12 record.

Supporting your Veteran

In analyzing what has happened to Brad over the past couple of years, we do not have to look much farther than Johan Santana. Since the emergence of Johan, Brad’s overall support in all facets of the game have diminished greatly. Despite the inability of the Twins offense to get Santana a consecutive Cy Young award, the mentality of Twins hitters when Santana is on the mound is that they have the best chance of winning. That used to be the mentality with Brad on the mound. The change in that mentality hit it’s peak in 2004, but was also very apparent last year. In 2005, Brad had 8 starts where he took on a loss when giving up 3 earned runs or less. He also had 4 no decisions in games where he gave up 3 earned runs or less. Though Brad finished with a 4.04 ERA in 2005, he had a very respectable 3.71 ERA coming into September when his sore shoulder got the best of him. The other group that has fallen off in terms of support is the coaching staff. For years, Brad was this team’s ace. And when your team’s ace is struggling you don’t pull him out of the game at the first sign of trouble. There’s a certain amount of trust involved in understanding that your best pitcher has the stuff to get himself out of certain situations. Granted there is a line there, but as the manager you want to convey to your pitcher that you are confident enough to stick with him when it counts. With Ron Gardenhire that confidence has been visibly dissipating as he has more and more often taken Brad out of games during the middle of an inning. Yes I understand that the Twins have developed a truly sensational bullpen over the years with true skills in getting out of sticky situations, but a manager must also recognize the message he’s giving to his starting pitcher, his former ace Brad Radke. Unsurprisingly the last group which has supported Brad less and less is the fan base. This becomes quite clear however as Johan Santana has not only become the team's best pitcher, but the most loved pitcher by the fans. These things seem to go hand in hand and consequently no fault of Brad's.

Brad at His Best

The biggest thing that has stood out for me over the past couple of years is that I haven't recognize Brad as a big game pitcher. Most of this understanding has come from viewing Brad against teams like the Yankees in the playoffs. In 2004, Brad was absolutely shelled by the Yankees to the tune of 5 runs and 3 homeruns. However, through my research this is a miscontrued perception on my part. Over the years Brad has proven time in and time out that he is in fact a big game pitcher. Even with his poor showing in 2004, Brad has a career 3.19ERA in the post-season, much better than his career season ERA of 4.22. Brad was also absolutely instrumental in the success of the Twins in 2002, overcoming his midseason injury to pitch 3 great games in the playoff, including a dissapointing loss to the angels in which he pitched 7 and 2/3 innings giving up only 2 earned runs. Where I have gotten confused is while Brad is a big game pitcher, he is not an All-Star pitcher like Johan. This becomes evident when talking about the star-studed offense that the Yankees come out with every year and his single apperance in the 1998 All-Star game where he also struggled.
While Brad has been greatly overshadowed as a pitcher since the emergence of Johan Santana, he has actually become more successful with the precense of Johan in the the rotation. Since Brad and Johan have become 1 and 2 in the rotation in 2004, Brad has put up season ERA's of 3.48 in 2004 and 3.71 in 2005 before his shoulder soreness took effect in September. Similarly, Johan has developed into the most devasting second half pitcher in the game. Since 2003, Johan has a 30-3 record with a 1.90ERA. Radke has shown that when Johan is at his best so is he, posting a 18-8 record with a 3.52 ERA throughout the same period. Because of these facts, I'd officially like to take back my previous statements saying that Silva should start behind Johan in 2006, Brad should. When sports casters discuss lethal one two punches, Johan and Brad should be near the top of that list.
For anyone who has watch Brad over the years, they'll admit that it's best to show up late to the ballpark or watch a 30 minute program on tv before watching a game when Brad pitches. Brad has become notorious for giving up runs and homeruns in the first two innings of any game. While he tends to be a very slow starter, Brad always settles in. I seriously would like to sit down with Brad and discuss if this is a strategy of his. Because, if it is apart of his game, in some odd manner it does work as he can consistently can go through the 3rd-6th innings with minimal trouble and often more. Brad is at his best though when he can limit the amount of damage done in the first couple of innings. Homeruns alone wont necessarily tell the story. Brad will probably always give up a lot of homeruns, but as long as he can continue to limit the amount of homeruns with runners on-base he will remain successful.
Finally, Brad has made a name for himself as one of the best control pitchers in the game. Yes he can throw all his pitches for strikes but he also refuses to allow hitters to get free passes. Brad has never given up more than 57 walks in a season and since 2000 has never granted more than 28 free passes. For Brad this is a true key to success because he does tend to give up a lot of hits throughout the season. Limiting free passes keeps runners of the basebaths and as a result limits runs. Simple fact of baseball, if nobody gets on base, you can't score runs.

Brad's 2006 Outlook

With the durability and consistently Brad has shown throughout his career, pitchers in his position at the meager age of 33 (yes 33) would be looking for a long term contract to provide some security as the aging process begins to take it's toll. However, that is not the story with Brad. Brad has actually been contemplating retirement for quite a few years now, and unless things change, he plans on retiring after the completion of the 2006 season. While this fact is surprising to most, it becomes less so when you understand the man. Brad doesn't fascinate and attract fans with a charasmatic personality or a driving competitive edge like Johan for instance. Instead, Brad is a quiet duty pitcher. You wont see Brad pumping his fist after striking out the side in the 8th inning, but you will see Brad quietly focused in the corner of the duguot focusing on the duty at hand. As a duty pitcher Brad is increasingly intuned to his need on the team. With many young pitchers on their way up, Brad might not feel the need coming into 2007. Similarly with a new ace now fully developed, Brad not feel as necessary as he has in the past. Then of course there's a team element to the equation. Brad has always felt at home in a Minnesota Twins uniform. I highly doubt Brad would ever play for another team with the possible exception of the Milwakee Brewers. Still over the past two seasons, Brad has been shown a significant decrease in teamate support in the form of runs. Whether this is subconcious or concious remains unclear, but I would assume it's in the back of Brad's mind. On the same note, Brad has been with this team longer than anyone else and with the exception of Torii Hunter is the only won who remembers the darker days in Minnesota Twins history. Even though Brad is only 33, he must feel old with the abundunce of youth on this team. On that same note, Brad last year for the first time experienced the first effects of old age. Though Brad battled an injury in 2002, for the first time last year he felt the effects of age in the soreness of his shoulder that almost limited him to less than 200 innings for the first time since his rookie year (not counting the injury season). If the Twins organization desires Brad to stay around past 2006, their will have to be a joint effort on all sides to remind Brad why he's so important to this club. This will have to come in the support that I discussed earlier in this posting. In my mind, while I do greatly desire to see more and more of our young talent develope, at the same time I recognize the importance of someone like Brad on a pitching staff. Brad is consistent, loyal and an obvious veteran who has been there and done that. What sways me to the side of wanting Brad to stick around is that he is still improving. He has reach that age in his career where talent is dissapating, but knowledge is taking over. For me that transition is fasinating to watch. Please don't say it's over yet faithfull Bradke.