CaseinTHEface: The Case for Twins Strategy

End of an Era? Part 2

The Bradke Effect

Walking out of the ondeck circle, you stroll lightly to the batters box. With your back foot you dig your spot into the dirt and proceed with your little pre-pitch quirks. Finally when your finished you look up and find that a man is staring at you from a little more than 60 feet away. His eyes don’t impose fear, but they don’t retain any fear either. If you’re Alex Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez and you’re looking for some sign of respect stepping in to the box, don’t count on it. Just a calm tranquility resides in those eyes, whether he’s just struck the previous batter out on a filthy change-up or given up a mammoth three-run homerun into the right field upper deck. Then it begins, the set, the signature high leg kick and then the flowing, effortless delivery. All is steady, all is calm, because it’s Brad Radke. And now your panicking because you don’t know the pitch but you know it’s a strike and you hate pitchers who always throw first pitch strikes. Brad’s arsenal is by no means overpowering but that’s exactly what he wants you to believe. He has a fastball that ranges between the upper 80’s and lower 90’s. He also has a curve and a slider, but it’s his changeup that makes Brad a threat. While Brad’s changeup does not have the same speed differential as that of Johan Santana, he’s still able to throw his without changing his arm speed. So bottom line, your going to look foolish if you don’t know it’s coming before he starts his wind up. It’s Brad’s changeup that allows him to strikeout 100 plus hitters a year, and it’s his changeup that keeps hitters honest against his less than impressive fastball. The other reason that Brad has stayed so effective over the years is his control. Not only does he throw all his pitches for strikes but he locates his fastball with utter precision, hitting corners at will.

The Brad Radke Story

Brad was actually born just a bit east of the Wisconsin, Minnesota border in Eau Claire. He was drafted in 1991 in the 8^th round as the 207^th overall pick by the Minnesota Twins. Once in the Twins system Brad moved up steadily showing the same skills that he has been recognized by his entire life. He stayed consistent and his control was phenomenal. After going 12-9 with a 2.66ERA in 1994 for the Twins AA affiliate, at the meager age of 22 and without a single start at the major league level, Brad became a starter for the Minnesota Twins in 1995. After an unimpressive start in 1995, Brad continued to make improvements and in his second year by lowering his ERA by 86 points and nearly doubling his strikeouts from the year before. Though I couldn’t tell you for certain, but I’m sure this was the point where he found his changeup. Then in 1997 the chance the Twins took on this young Wisconsin native paid its dividends.  Brad Radke became the first 20 game winner since the glory days of 1991, more impressive was the fact that he did it in a season where the team only won 68 games. After 1997 Brad continued to pitch well, although not nearly as dominant as he had the year before. More importantly though, he remained consistent and durable, posting more than 200 innings each year. With the exception of 1997 Brad’s record reflected the struggles of the ball club. He continued to post double digits in both wins and loses, but he would not accumulate more wins than loses until the team’s resurgence beginning in 2001. Then in 2002, Brad experienced his first major injury and was out throughout the middle part of the season. Still, Brad proved his worth. Because, it was Brad who ended the famous Oakland 20 game winning streak with a 6 hit shutout on September 6^th and it was Brad who threw 3 postseason games giving up a mere 4 earned runs, in route to a 2-1 record.  In 2003, Brad got back to his form posting a 14-10 record with a somewhat unimpressive 4.49ERA. The following year something came over Brad. Though he only posted an 11-8 record, Brad Radke had a career best 3.48 ERA. This was of course, masked by Johan Santana’s amazing second half run and consequent Cy Young performance. It was in 2004 that we first ran across the term low run support in our every day discussion of Brad Radke. In 2004 Brad recorded only 19 decisions in 34 starts, then again in 2005 he earned 21 decisions in 31 starts posting an ugly 9-12 record.

Supporting your Veteran

In analyzing what has happened to Brad over the past couple of years, we do not have to look much farther than Johan Santana. Since the emergence of Johan, Brad’s overall support in all facets of the game have diminished greatly. Despite the inability of the Twins offense to get Santana a consecutive Cy Young award, the mentality of Twins hitters when Santana is on the mound is that they have the best chance of winning. That used to be the mentality with Brad on the mound. The change in that mentality hit it’s peak in 2004, but was also very apparent last year. In 2005, Brad had 8 starts where he took on a loss when giving up 3 earned runs or less. He also had 4 no decisions in games where he gave up 3 earned runs or less. Though Brad finished with a 4.04 ERA in 2005, he had a very respectable 3.71 ERA coming into September when his sore shoulder got the best of him. The other group that has fallen off in terms of support is the coaching staff. For years, Brad was this team’s ace. And when your team’s ace is struggling you don’t pull him out of the game at the first sign of trouble. There’s a certain amount of trust involved in understanding that your best pitcher has the stuff to get himself out of certain situations. Granted there is a line there, but as the manager you want to convey to your pitcher that you are confident enough to stick with him when it counts. With Ron Gardenhire that confidence has been visibly dissipating as he has more and more often taken Brad out of games during the middle of an inning. Yes I understand that the Twins have developed a truly sensational bullpen over the years with true skills in getting out of sticky situations, but a manager must also recognize the message he’s giving to his starting pitcher, his former ace Brad Radke. Unsurprisingly the last group which has supported Brad less and less is the fan base. This becomes quite clear however as Johan Santana has not only become the team's best pitcher, but the most loved pitcher by the fans.  These things seem to go hand in hand and consequently no fault of Brad's.

Brad at His Best

• The biggest thing that has stood out for me over the past couple of years is that I haven't recognize Brad as a big game pitcher.  Most of this understanding has come from viewing Brad against teams like the Yankees in the playoffs.  In 2004, Brad was absolutely shelled by the Yankees to the tune of 5 runs and 3 homeruns.  However, through my research this is a miscontrued perception on my part.  Over the years Brad has proven time in and time out that he is in fact a big game pitcher. Even with his poor showing in 2004, Brad has a career 3.19ERA in the post-season, much better than his career season ERA of 4.22.  Brad was also absolutely instrumental in the success of the Twins in 2002, overcoming his midseason injury to pitch 3 great games in the playoff, including a dissapointing loss to the angels in which he pitched 7 and 2/3 innings giving up only 2 earned runs.  Where I have gotten confused is while Brad is a big game pitcher, he is not an All-Star pitcher like Johan.  This becomes evident when talking about the star-studed offense that the Yankees come out with every year and his single apperance in the 1998 All-Star game where he also struggled. 
• While Brad has been greatly overshadowed as a pitcher since the emergence of Johan Santana, he has actually become more successful with the precense of Johan in the the rotation.  Since Brad and Johan have become 1 and 2 in the rotation in 2004, Brad has put up season ERA's of 3.48 in 2004 and 3.71 in 2005 before his shoulder soreness took effect in September.  Similarly, Johan has developed into the most devasting second half pitcher in the game.  Since 2003, Johan has a 30-3 record with a 1.90ERA.  Radke has shown that when Johan is at his best so is he, posting a 18-8 record with a 3.52 ERA throughout the same period.  Because of these facts, I'd officially like to take back my previous statements saying that Silva should start behind Johan in 2006, Brad should.  When sports casters discuss lethal one two punches, Johan and Brad should be near the top of that list. 
• For anyone who has watch Brad over the years, they'll admit that it's best to show up late to the ballpark or watch a 30 minute program on tv before watching a game when Brad pitches.  Brad has become notorious for giving up runs and homeruns in the first two innings of any game.  While he tends to be a very slow starter, Brad always settles in.  I seriously would like to sit down with Brad and discuss if this is a strategy of his.  Because, if it is apart of his game, in some odd manner it does work as he can consistently can go through the 3rd-6th innings with minimal trouble and often more.  Brad is at his best though when he can limit the amount of damage done in the first couple of innings.  Homeruns alone wont necessarily tell the story.  Brad will probably always give up a lot of homeruns, but as long as he can continue to limit the amount of homeruns with runners on-base he will remain successful.
• Finally, Brad has made a name for himself as one of the best control pitchers in the game.  Yes he can throw all his pitches for strikes but he also refuses to allow hitters to get free passes.  Brad has never given up more than 57 walks in a season and since 2000 has never granted more than 28 free passes.  For Brad this is a true key to success because he does tend to give up a lot of hits throughout the season.  Limiting free passes keeps runners of the basebaths and as a result limits runs.  Simple fact of baseball, if nobody gets on base, you can't score runs.

Brad's 2006 Outlook

With the durability and consistently Brad has shown throughout his career, pitchers in his position at the meager age of 33 (yes 33) would be looking for a long term contract to provide some security as the aging process begins to take it's toll.  However, that is not the story with Brad.  Brad has actually been contemplating retirement for quite a few years now, and unless things change, he plans on retiring after the completion of the 2006 season.  While this fact is surprising to most, it becomes less so when you understand the man.  Brad doesn't fascinate and attract fans with a charasmatic personality or a driving competitive edge like Johan for instance.  Instead, Brad is a quiet duty pitcher.  You wont see Brad pumping his fist after striking out the side in the 8th inning, but you will see Brad quietly focused in the corner of the duguot focusing on the duty at hand.  As a duty pitcher Brad is increasingly intuned to his need on the team.  With many young pitchers on their way up, Brad might not feel the need coming into 2007.  Similarly with a new ace now fully developed, Brad not feel as necessary as he has in the past.  Then of course there's a team element to the equation.  Brad has always felt at home in a Minnesota Twins uniform.  I highly doubt Brad would ever play for another team with the possible exception of the Milwakee Brewers.  Still over the past two seasons, Brad has been shown a significant decrease in teamate support in the form of runs.  Whether this is subconcious or concious remains unclear, but I would assume it's in the back of Brad's mind.  On the same note, Brad has been with this team longer than anyone else and with the exception of Torii Hunter is the only won who remembers the darker days in Minnesota Twins history.  Even though Brad is only 33, he must feel old with the abundunce of youth on this team.  On that same note, Brad last year for the first time experienced the first effects of old age.  Though Brad battled an injury in 2002, for the first time last year he felt the effects of age in the soreness of his shoulder that almost limited him to less than 200 innings for the first time since his rookie year (not counting the injury season).  If the Twins organization desires Brad to stay around past 2006, their will have to be a joint effort on all sides to remind Brad why he's so important to this club.  This will have to come in the support that I discussed earlier in this posting.  In my mind, while I do greatly desire to see more and more of our young talent develope, at the same time I recognize the importance of someone like Brad on a pitching staff.  Brad is consistent, loyal and an obvious veteran who has been there and done that.  What sways me to the side of wanting Brad to stick around is that he is still improving.  He has reach that age in his career where talent is dissapating, but knowledge is taking over.  For me that transition is fasinating to watch.  Please don't say it's over yet faithfull Bradke.

 

The End of an Era? Part 1

My Torii Experience

I met Torii once back when he still owned his home in Brooklyn Park, Minnesota. It was a pretty normal summer morning except for the fact that I had just dragged myself out of bed at an uncharacteristic 5:00 am that morning. See I work in the produce department at the Golden Valley Byerly’s and we get there about 6:00 am to start getting things ready, much like a bakery would. But since I’m part-time, I normally work during the afternoon and the night, and on this rare occasion I had showed up the same time as the managers. After about 2 hours in to the job, I was just starting to wake up and then suddenly I woke up in a hurry. I had seen Torii in our store several times, just not face to face. This morning he startled me though, because he appeared around a corner suddenly less then 10 feet away from me with his wife. This, of course, was the perfect time for someone like Torii to come in because at 8:00 am on a weekday morning, there aren’t a lot of people in the store.

“Oh… Hey Torii,” I said somewhat startled and surprised.

“Hey how’s it going?” he replied.

In hindsight I should’ve been reaching for something for him to autograph but like I said it was still early for me and I wasn’t exactly thinking clearly; plus all I had in front of me was a big pile of oranges. I’m glad though, that I didn’t bother him too much, because I’m sure he just wanted to get out of the house and start a day of normally.  “It’s going, it’s going. You?” was all I could come up with.

“Ah, man I’m just tired”

“Yeah, late night uh” I said, referring to the fact that they had gone quite a few extra innings the night before.

“Yeah (pointing at his wife) she kept me up all night.”

“Ah…” (I faked a look that I understood, but really, I was just surprised that he had just shared that information with me).

 

 

The Torii Hunter Story

Over this past off-season there was a ton of speculation that Torii was going to be traded. On the one hand there were the guys like the Yankee reporters claiming that Torii would find his way into pinstripes for 2006 because he’s the best candidate to fill their gap in CF. I remember one particularly annoying reporter saying that one potential trade could involve Torii for Carl Pavano. This being a completely ignorant and pompous claim, assuming the Yankees can just dump their trash for an All-Star center fielder like Torii Hunter. Plus like we really need more pitching… Anyways, on the other hand there was the blogging community. Many men, who I greatly respect, talked about how overrated Torii was as a centerfielder and how replaceable his offensive capabilities are. I hope this little tribute proves otherwise.  See, it was through that little encounter that I had, that one can really understand the type of guy Torii is. Torii speaks his mind. He is honest and upfront and while you might not want to hear, at least you know where he stands.

The biggest reason why I consider Torii to be so vital to this ball club is that he his name has become synonymous with Twins success.  In 2001, in Torri’s first full year as a starter, the Twins finished above .500 for the first time since 1992. While Torii had already established himself as the Twins starter in centerfield before 2002, his breakthrough also marked the beginning of a new era for the Minnesota Twins. In 2002 Torii was the first Twin to be a starter in the All Star game since Kirby Puckett started in CF in 1995. Having already hit 20 HR’s, Torii also got the full All Star treatment by participating in the annual Homerun Derby. However, it was in the first inning in that game that Torii captured the hearts of Minnesotans and fans everywhere. The nation watched as Torii ran to the wall, leapt up and stole a homerun from Barry Bonds. One minute we stared awe struck, the next minute we laughed as Barry came rushing out into the outfield to hoist Torii onto his shoulders. I was still pretty young when I witnessed that spectacle, but surprisingly that moment holds more significance to me now. In my mind Torri’s catch demonstrated a small triumph over something that has destroyed baseball. See while Torii’s out there playing his heart out basically living his dream, guys like Bonds, expect fans to respect what they do. They expect us to believe as they lightly flail their arms at the baseball and effortlessly hit homeruns, they expect us to believe that their consistent injuries are just due to old age, they expect us to believe that they just need to lose 30 lbs in one off-season to take pressure of their precious knees. Well I don’t buy it anymore and anyone who wants to call me out on my claims, feel free to do so. After the All-Star game the Twins rallied out of their decade long slump and made the playoffs for the first time since 1991, winning the division in the process. That year the Twins established themselves as a legit, beating Oakland in the first round, a team that had won 102 games in the regular season. Granted, the Twins folded to the soon to be World Series champions in the Anaheim Angels, but there were definite reasons to be optimistic for the future. In 2003, the Twins again won the Central Division title. However after a masterful game 1 by emerging Johan Santana, the Twins lost three games in a row to the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs. The Twins in 2004 defended their division title for a second time. This time however, a much more seasoned team was coming up against those “Damn Yankees”. In my mind 2004 was the year that the Twins truly had the ability to take it to the next level. After game 1, the Twins appeared poised to do so as Santana this time shut out the Yankees. Game 2 was another story though. The starting pitchers were Brad Radke and John Lieber. That day Brad reminded us that while he may be a big game pitcher, he is not an All-Star pitcher, giving up homeruns to Jeter, Sheffield and Rodriguez. Still the Twins fought back and in the eight inning beat up Tom Gordon and more importantly kept the rally going scoring two runs to tie the game against the cornerstone of the Yankee machine: Mariano Rivera. No closer has more defiantly destroyed the hopes of the opposition then Rivera. After the eighth, the game was tied and destined to go to extra innings as Rivera calmed the situation and Joe Nathan strolled onto the mound for the Twins. Finally in the 12^th, Torii Hunter came to the plate and made Tanyon Sturtze pay dearly for his mistake of throwing him a high fastball. He had hoisted the Twins hopes on his shoulders and hit a shot over the fence of Yankee Stadium.  Minnesota fans everywhere cheered as Torii rounded the bases, breaking the back of the evil empire that would soon find themselves down two games to none in a best of three series. However, as you all know that was not the end of that day as a coach made a poor decision on the new hero who only wanted to be able win it for his team and its loyal fans. But that’s a story for another day. After that major disappointed finishing 2004, 2005 brought its own new challenges. New faces were abundant, but expectations were very high as some predicted to see Minnesota in the World Series. By midseason, Torii was desperately trying to give hope to a team struggling to keep up with the red hot White Sox. Torii had had an amazing June at the plate but on July 29^th, Torii tried to do too much. Ironically, former teammate David Ortiz had hit a shot into the awkward juncture in centerfield and in an attempt to make a miraculous catch, Torii busted up his ankle. While the Twins hopes of defending their division title were fading, Torri’s injury marked the end of any attempted comeback. Still the 2005 Twins managed to still finish above .500 for the 5th consecutive season. 

The Real Torii Hunter

Torii’s breakout year in 2002 drove the Minnesota Twins to their first of three division titles, and his injury this past season marked the end of that streak. Obviously Torii is not single-handedly responsible for the Twins success, but I find this fact to be quite telling of who Torii is to this team. See after his very successful season in 2002, the organization was thrilled with Torii’s playmaking ability in CF. But what they were hoping they had found was that guy who could change games with his bat. As much as they wanted Torii to be that guy, Torii subconsciously declared that he would not be that guy. After the first half of 2002, Torii had already hit 20 HR, yet he only managed to hit 9 more the rest of the season, failing to become the first Twin to hit 30HR’s since 1987. Similarly Torii proved he was not a clean-up hitter as he has shown that he is much more productive from the 5 spot. See as much as we’ve needed that game changing ability at the plate, Torii has proven time in and time out that he is a game saver, not a game changer. This fact becomes most apparent when we start talking about all the homeruns and doubles he saves while playing in the outfield. Further, even though Torii has become so intrinsically tied with Twins success he is at his best when others on the team are struggling.

Watching Torii at the plate can sometimes be very frustrating. Torii has proven that he is one of the best hitting centerfielders in the game, but still there is much too be desired. Mainly, he is not a big average hitter. Torii hit .289 in 2002 but after that he has basically developed into a .270 hitter. Secondly, Torii is very much a hacker. As much as you may want to change that, you probably can’t. It just has too much to do on how he was raised. Torii was not only pursuing a dream to become a major leaguer, he was also pursuing a dream in which he could right some of the wrongs in his family. He wanted to be able to support his parents and his siblings. He wasn’t going to be able to do that by watching pitches go by at the plate, he had to accomplish that by swinging his bat. So yes Torii will strikeout more than 100 times in a full season, and no he will not accumulate a very high on-base percentage. Finally, Torii has a tendency to be very streaky. Torii has some very good months but he also has some very bad months, the good thing though is that he tends to be very reliable down the stretch. While he may be somewhat frustrating, he has proven to be very inspiring with his bat. As I mentioned before, Torii is not a game changer, but a game saver. He is the same at the plate as he is on the field in that respect. Over the past couple of years, Torii is at his best inspiring teammates to not give up. He is out there saving the team, keeping them around .500 in any given month as opposed to letting them fall below that mark. Similarly, he has very much become a big game hitter. While other teammates are bowing before teams like the Yankees and the Angels (both teams we had lost to in the playoffs), Torii is out there trying to inspire confidence. In looking at teams that the Twins have played somewhat regularly over the past three years, Torri has put up some of his best marks against the Yankees (.302BA) and the Angels (.284BA). On the same note Torii is a lifetime .304 hitter in the playoffs with a .522 SLG percentage. For the Twins in 2006, Torii will remain vital as the teams only proven power threat from the right side of the plate, so losing him would be quite damaging.

Defensively, there’s no disrespecting Torii’s game. Not only has he proven that he has the talent to make game saving catches, every day he has also proven that he is willing to give it is all, often times sacrificing himself for the team. Some may say that Torii is reckless in CF and that he doesn’t consider the after effects of what happens if and when he injures himself. But considering the way he has conducted himself, I think it’s a true testament that he’s only had two major injuries over the past seven years. I think it’s also a testament to how well he’s familiar with his abilities. Sure you might notice that Torii will make a catch look a lot better than it is with a dive or a jump. But as I’ve mentioned before with this, for anyone who’s actually played baseball, often times it’s much safer to plan on making a jump or a dive as opposed to not and then falling unexpectedly. Torii has already declared that despite his most recent ankle injury he will not change the way he plays baseball. And I know for a fact that slowing down is not the way he approaches life, so I did not expect that to happen anyways. I look forward to again watching Torii crashing into walls and diving into the turf to make the catch. Thank you Spiderman for making every pop-fly and line-drive to centerfield into something to cheer about.

Torii has also established himself as a very good base stealer. While the Twins have seen a good deal of speed talent on the team in such guys like Luis Rivas and Christian Guzman, nobody but Torii has developed any kind of skill on the base paths. See while Rivas and Guzman were lazily sitting around wasting their natural born talent, Torii was taking the lead learning how to get good jumps of pitchers. In 2006, yes Torii might lose a step because of his ankle injury, but I think that he will emerged as a 30 SB threat because of the knowledge and skill he’s developed. This aspect of his game proves hands down, the leadership he implores on this team.

As far as Torii’s clubhouse presence, after his absence in the second half of 2005, there is no doubt in my mind that he was sorely missed. Yes there was the incident with Justin Morneau, but in all sincerity we, the fan base, had no business knowing about that. Little (yes little) incidents like that happen all the time and nobody ever hears about it because it stays in the clubhouse. As I mentioned before, Torii speaks his mind, and unfortunately he may have gone too far with Morneau. To me that’s a testament to his role when he’s in the clubhouse. He is the most vocal player in there, keeping guys’ heads up or calling them out when necessary. While he may inspire on the diamond, his role as a leader behind the scenes is even more vital to this team. After last year, this team’s mentality was on a serious low. Prospects had not lived up to expectations, and veterans were struggling to make up any difference. All said, this team was projected to go deep in to the playoffs; instead they struggled to stay above .500. Torii will be instrumental in 2006 to leading these guys back to a winning mentality, because frankly that’s what he’s known during his time in Minnesota. Sure he witnessed some of the trials of the late 90’s but his emergence as a regular in 2001 marked the first winning season since 1992, and his emergence as star marked the emergence of the Twins as a force in the American League Central. Torii has said that in 2006 he will be back with a vengeance, so I look forward to opening day. As many have pointed out, 2006 could be Torii’s final year with the Twins. His contract calls for a 12 million dollar option for 2007, and with the Twins there are always budget concerns. Torii has already voiced a strong desire to play his entire career in Minnesota and I personally believe that he would be willing to restructure his contract if the organization makes the commitment to him. If Torii returns to his status as one of the leaders of this club, I think the best option for the Twins would be to make a new contract with Torii by midseason as they did with Johan last year. Figures I can’t be sure of, but somewhere in the ballpark of a 4 year deal with an average of 9 million is by no means unreasonable considering Hunter’s contributions to this team. Agree or disagree, you cannot ignore what his presence means to the Minnesota Twins and its fans.

Other Stuff:

• I know I said I'd post my thoughts and predictions for the other divisions, but this post took me a lot longer than I planned on but I will be posting some of that soon.
• Looking ahead to April, I am of course excited to see two Cy Young hopefuls battling it out opening day.  Johan tends to start out the season slow, so I might give the edge to Halladay, but should be an amazing matchup so we will see.  Personally I'm more excited that the Twins have a change to welcome A.J. Burnett American League style.  Personally, I believe he's a jerk who plays when he wants to, obviously now he'll want to.  The Twins have had a good deal of success against hard throwing righties, so we we'll see!
• This End of an Era? deal has a couple of parts and then I'll get into some of the players of the new era so I hope you enjoy it!

A Case for Miggy

Miguel Tejada (aka "Miggy")

On December 9th, 2005 Miguel Tejada came out publicly and expressed his displeasure with the Orioles organization.  I do think the while he may have mentioned it in passing, the media took his statements out of proposition as if he was in the same boat as Manny Ramirez in asking for a trade.  Anyways, that day I emailed Seth at sethspeaks.net and asked him about whether or not the Twins had a shot in hell in the bidding for the perennial All-Star.  At the time I did not have a blog, otherwise I would've posted my argument sooner.  But luckily for me at the time, Seth was following my same train of thought and put together his own argument on how much the Twins could benefit from a trade for Miguel Tejada.  Now that I have my own blog, I thought it would be interesting to right my own bit on the situation.

Obviously the Twins have missed their best chances of offering a trade for Tejada, but the window of opportunity is still open at this point.  In my opinion the best time to offer the trade came when the Orioles were about to agree to a on contract for aging slugger Jeromy Burnitz.  As the deal was in the works, Burnitz turned around and signed a contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates.  This was Minnesota's best opportunity for which I will explain in a bit.

For anyone who has read Moneyball they might already know some of the Miguel Tejada story.  While Tejada had tremendous success developing in Oakland, he was never one of Billy Beane's favorites.  Miguel has prooven that he is one of the American Leagues best hitters, but he has also shown a lack of patience as well.  Like our Jaque Jones Tejada is a hacker, just part of their personalities.  Obviously there are some huge differences between Jones and Tejada though, since Tejada has met much more success.  Billy Beane and his new system have sought to find value in guys who are not just great hitters like Tejada, but other guys who nobody notice just having a nack for getting on base.  However, that doesn't mean Beane was in a hurry to get rid of Tejada, milking every year out of him until his arbitration years were over.  After all, Tejada did drive in over 100 RBI's in five straight seasons with at least 27 HR's.  Beyond that, Tejada has prooven himself to be a more than adequate defender at shortstop.  After 2003 however, the Athletics made a decision that they would not be able to afford Tejada anymore and didn't even bother offering him a contract.  Looking to start re-contending in 2004, Baltimore put up big money for Tejada in a division becoming notorious for some of the biggest spending teams in baseball (I believe the figure was 70 million for 6 years but I'm not sure).  In 2004, the Orioles big acquisition payed it's dividends producing his best season of his career.  Tejada in 2004 posted career highs in RBI's (150... ouch!), HR's, BA and SLG just to mention a few.  While the Orioles only finished 78-84 in 2004, there was improvement from the previous year and there were signs to be optimistic about the future.  In 2005, the Orioles came out rolling,  I believe they were leading the division by the All Star break as both the Yankees and Red Sox were both dealing with pitcher injuries.  However, that lead fell apart after the break and so did the Orioles, with the exception of Tejada.  Though is numbers may have fallen off in 2005, it was more due to the production around him than his own issues.  He did failed to reach 100 RBI's for the first time in five seasons, but he still had tons of extra base hits and similar career numbers with RISP.  Further while his homerun total fell some, he had career highs in doubles and triples, so you can't really blame his decline in RBI's and runs on him.  Anyways, by the end of 2005, the Orioles had already ousted their manager and everyone in the organization got back to planning a new strategy for 2006. 

I sight the failed acquisition of Burnitz as the Twins golden opportunity because that's when we could chime in and other to add another piece to the Orioles puzzle.  See the Orioles had already expressed interest in Kyle Lohse but it hadn't been talked about much because the Twins were looking for offensive help in return and the Orioles didn't have much to offer.  In 2006, the Orioles have got to be thinking about rebuilding in a very strong division.  The Yankees could be better this year with more stable pitching (and the return of the All-Star lineup), the Red Sox have made several very crucial improvements and should come back a contender and obviously now the Blue Jays are in the mix.  The Jays have become sick and tired of trying to compete with what they got and in the off-season went on a big money spree uncharacteristic for a team that doesn't raise a ton of money.  So that should make the Orioles ability to contend in 2006 almost impossible with what they have.  Lohse would be a good starting point in their rebuilding process.  He is still young and still holds a good deal of potential as he has been progressing.  In return for Tejada though, they would need much more.  This is where Shannon Stewart comes in.  Shannon is not the power hitter the Orioles were seeking in Burnitz, but Shannon is a much better defensive outfielder and produces very good numbers offensively without the power.  What's nice about a Lohse and Stewart package is that it clears a bit more than 10 million for the books, making Tejada an even salary swap for 2006.  Then in 2007 when Tejada's salary starts to jump, you know Radke's going to be off the books and possibly Hunter so that shouldn't be an issue.  Still I don't think Lohse and Stewart would be sufficient for the Orioles.  I'd sweeten the deal with some of our young pitching as the Orioles rotation remains very weak and needs to rebuild.  The Orioles would probably ask for somebody who's close to breaking through like Liriano for example (no i wouldn't even give him up for Tejada unless it was a straight up swap).  Personally, I might offer up Perkins to seal the deal with a good lefty, but I'd rather not (and I don't think the Twins would as they have already invested a good deal of money for this hometown boy who is on the fast track as I've already pointed out).  Maybe someone like Boof Bonser who is close or someone like Adam Harben who has more talent.  I mean in all sincerity there's a lot to choose from in our system, the biggest question is that if the Orioles are more looking for someone to be ready soon, or someone who might be awhile yet but has higher potential.  Anyways, to have Tejada for Lohse, Stewart and another pitcher (maybe even Rincon if they want instant gratification) I don't think that's unreasonable.
Tejada is...

• ...the last piece of the puzzle to finally make the Twins a legitimate contender.
• ...a true clean-up hitter who hits for power and drive in tons of runs.
• ...someone who is feared by opposing pitchers.
• ...the most durable shortstop in the game (5 straight seasons playing every game).
• ...a great compliment to Castillo up the middle.
• ...a clubhouse leader and motivator.
• ...a fellow Dominican to rear Liriano into the bigs.

So though the Twins may have missed out on their best opportunity to get Tejada, the funny thing is, is that it's not too late.  This trade could even wait until the trade deadline down the stretch as it may take that long for the Orioles front office to realize they should commit to restructuring and to realize the full value of Lohse and any other pitcher they might decide on (except Liriano of course). 

My 2006 Twins
At the very beginning of the off-season, everyone who had an opinion and a way of publishing their thoughts was able to post what they thought the Twins should do to better themselves in 2006.  They were able to do this because they knew who would be free-agents and who possible trade targets would be.  Again I missed out on that opportunity, but since I'm the one writing this blog I will take it upon myself to quickly publish what I would've have done to the 2006 Twins.  I know it's not healthy to dwell on these things too much so I will be brief as these are only dreams of greatness.  Though I didn't work the salaries, I don't think this particular group stretches far beyond what the Twins are already willing to spend for 2006.

Lineup
1. Lew Ford (LF)
2. Bill Mueller (3B)
3. Joe Mauer (C)
4. Miguel Tejada (SS)
5. Justin Morneau (1B)
6. Torii Hunter (CF)
7. Matthew Lecroy (DH)/ Jason Kubel (DH/OF)
8. Micheal Cuddyer (2B)
9. Jacque Jones (RF)

Any questions?  This line-up would have brought an instant end to the power shortage in recent years.  There are a bunch of guys able to hit 20 plus HR's and everyone can hit at least 10.  I also think this is a great lineup for Kubel to ease his way into when he's ready in 2006.  I've been a big fan of Jaque, despite his struggles.  His homerun against Garcia to break the no-no to win 1-0 against the Sox will stay in my mind for many years to come.  Hitting 9th, he could come back post .280+BA with 20+HR.  Tejada would bring that real threat between the M&M boys.  Bill Mueller would be that professional bat at the top of the order with strong defense at third.  All of a sudden this team wouldn't seem so weak and inexperienced.

Rotation
1. Johan Santana
2. Brad Radke
3. Carlos Silva
4. Joe Mays/ Fransisco Liriano
5. Scott Baker

Yes I would've brought back Mays because he voiced a willingness to reconstruct his contract and he could have been traded once Liriano was ready.  Otherwise the rest of this staff would remain solid.

Other Stuff

• Matthew Lecroy was picked up by the Nationals yesterday.  We will miss you faithful lefty-masher.  I don't know too much about the Nationals but I'll assume he should contribute, hopefully they will recognize his unique talent and play him whenever possible.
• Wayne Krivsky is also gone now officially, becoming the GM of the Cincinnati Reds.  Obviously he will be missed as he has helped out Terry Ryan with a lot of deals and such over the past 10 years. 
• Tomorrow I will do my predictions for at least the AL West, maybe the East too.  I have them down in my head so far, but I want to do a little more research to back my thoughts. 

The Final Parts of the Equation

Introduction
I trust everyone had a good weekend.  Sorry I wasn't able to post until now but this weekend was pretty hectic, the Superbowl being the least of my concerns somehow.  But I will put in my brief thoughts about that later.  What I'd like to do today is to go over the the rest of the equation for the Twins in 2006.  Mostly, this is a look at some of the up and coming players and what they might show us (if given the opportunity) in 2006.  I also will look at some of the invites to spring training, that is those most likely to stick around.  As far as making projections go, it's extremely difficult in these situations because you really don't know how much time, if any, they'll get to see on the big club.  Obviously if someone goes down, there are some guys at the top of the list to come in and get a shot so I'll keep that in mind too.  After that I actually do want to make my predictions for each division in the American League.  I'll start today looking at our very own Central Division.  Looking at who played with the Twins last year there seems to actually be quite a few players who might find themselves out of the loop next year and maybe being picked up by other teams.  Brent Abernathy is gone.  The signing of Sierra seems to kick Terry Tiffee of the 25-man roster.  Mike Redmond's back- up on the 40-man roster may very well change this year with someone like Shawn Wooten coming into the picture, possibly leaving out Chris Heintz and/or Rob Bowen. How much longer is Glenn Willams going to stick around?  Somebody elsewhere might find use for Jason Tyner, though I am unsure of his status for 2006.  For 2006, I actually see Gardenhire spending much less time giving opportunities to guys without any Major League experience.  Most of the guys on the following list (not all), tend to be a bit older or have had found some success at the Major League level at some point in their careers.  I think Gardenhire was very frustrated after last year, in dealing with so much immaturity on the team.

2006 Cameos and More

Postion Players
Utility IF Luis Rodriguez
September LF Alex Romero
Option 3B Glen Williams
September 1B/PH Garrett Jones
Option C Shawn Wooten

Relief Pitchers
September RP Pat Neshek
Season Relief Darrell May

Starting Pitchers
Spot Starter Dave Gassner
Spot Starter Boof Bonser
Spot Starter Glen Perkins

Luis Rodriguez
As already seen in my rant about Nick Punto, I really believe Luis should be on the 25-man roster as opposed to Nick Punto.  In 2005 Luis was very much an intangible that nobody thought much of until now.  Towards the end of the season, I really looked for Luis's name on the roster before the game because I think he's a lot of fun to watch.  Obviously, he's a player with a variety of skills.  He is a switch hitter, which I like. So far he's hit better from the left side of the plate, somewhat typical for non-power switch hitters. Since he only had 175 AB during his Major League debut we don't want to assume to much in that area just yet.  So far though, he's hit for pretty good average and has some decent power for his size.  Obviously he wont be hitting many homeruns, but he gets a decent amount of doubles and an occasional triple as he is not slow but not exceptionally fast.  The thing that was most impressive for such a young player in 2006 was his plate dicipline.  In 175 AB Luis struck out 23 times but also walked 18 times.  In his short stint, Luis also offered us a hint of poise when the game was on the line, hitting a very nice .375 BA with RISP.  Defensively, Luis spent most of his time at 2B last year, although he did see a good deal at 3B and some at short.  He did committ 3 errors but all occured while playing 3rd base, the least natural of his positions.  Second is his best position.  After the fall and departure of Rivas in 2005, there was some question about 2nd base for a while there.  After recent aquisitions however, 2nd is almost a log jam.  Castillo's the starter and now with the aquisition of Alexi Casilla, there appears to be an eair-apparent in line.  So we'll see how that pans out as 2006 unfolds.  As far as 2006 is concerned I would be very dissapointed if he spent all his time in AAA, although that's probably how he'll spend a good deal of it.  If any of our middle infielders go down, I think Luis is at the top of the list.  Course you could always trade Punto for whoever (I don't care) and then bring Luis in as the utility man of the bench.  But that's probably just me... 

Alex Romero
Depending on what happens in right field this season, if Alex has another good year you would have to assume that he'll find himself in the main competition for left field for 2007.  This is  assuming that the Twins don't resign the aging Shannon Stewart after his contract expires.  You also have to take in account the development of Jason Kubel.  If things go the way I think they will, Ford will start the year in RF and then become the 4th outfielder when Kubel jumps up sometime about halfway into 2006.  Then in 2007, Kubel should be starting in RF and then Ford will provide competition for Romero for the starting job in LF.  Also in question here is whether or not Torii will still be patrolling CF in 2007.  Anyways, as far as Romero is concerned, his power numbers are developing as he continues to hit for average.  He does have a good deal of speed, but he still needs work with it if he wants to become a basestealing threat in the majors.  Although his isolated discipline was not as noticeable in 2005, that has been one of his strengths and hopefully he continues to develop along that path.  In all honesty Romero and Kubel are shapping out to be very similar hitters and could become a formidable duo in the corners in the next couple of years here.  I have my tally sheet of outfielders coming through the Twins system who have failed to live up to expectations (Mohr, Ryan, Restovich, Buchanan and others), hopefully that sheet is not in the future for either of these guys.  Romero's likely status for 2006 will be a September call-up in which I expect him to show some good things to come.  If injuries were to occur, I find it more likely that someone like Jason Tyner will get the call if he's still around.

Glenn Williams
I have to believe that depending on the performance of Tony Batista during Spring Training, Glenn Williams might be given a serious look.  I read Aaron's post on aarongleeman.com on a writer from the DR's comments about Batista, and I have to say that I myself was a bit concerned.  Why indeed would a Japanese team be cutting this guy especially since they still had to pay him the 5 million.  Looking at offensive numbers, they shouldn't be too dissapointed with that.  Ryan has made several remarks about Batista's clubhouse presence, so the likelyhood of that seems slim (though not impossible).  What it would have to be then is the decline of his defensive skills.  From what I've heard, it's a good possiblity that he's out of shape and his defense is suffering because of it.  For his sake, I hope he's been working on it, because this organization does have some options.  Obviously, what Williams did in his short stint had to be exciting for him.  He has the possibility of being a good average hitter, but he would definetly be somewhat of a liability in terms of complete lack of power for a 3rd basemen.  As far as possibilities other than Williams, you would have to assume Cuddyer would get another shot and might even play there some anyways in 2006.  Punto, Castro and Rodriguez have all played some at 3rd, but obviously not their ideal position.  In the system we have both Matt Moses and David Winfree, both who seem to be progressing very well, but both are still very young.  Anyways, this is more just a discussion on possible 3rd basemen considering the uneasiness about Batista, but as far as Williams is concerned, his window of opportunity is quickly closing here and with what he did in his short stint in 2005 I do kind of feel like he should be given another shot at some point in 2006.  Best of luck to ya!

Garrett Jones
Jones made the move from AA to AAA in 2005.  After having a great year offensively in 2004, the power was still there in 2005 but that was about it.  Garrett did not adjust well to the pitching in AAA as he struck out 109 times in 488 at-bats and didn't walk all that much to compensate, posting a dismal .244 BA.  But obviously there's still some potential here, as he remains on the 40-man roster and did end up playing in the Arizona Fall League.  There, Garrett had a massive .680 SLG percentage, hitting 19 extra base hits along with a handful of singles.  Garrett is getting older so 2006 should be a defining year for him.  If he can make the adjustment to AAA pitching he could earn himself a September call-up despite the fact that Justin Morneau is squarely in his way. Obviously, if Garrett threw right-handed he might be considering a change of position (say third base), but unfortuanelty he hits and throws lefthanded. If Garrett can make some significant strides, hitting wise, Morneau has already trasitioned to 1st base from catching, maybe he might make another trasition to 3rd leaving 1st to Garrett in 2007.  You'd have to admit there's some potential for a powerful corner infielder duo there that we haven't really seen in Minnesota, since Koskie and Morneau didn't really have a chance to develope together.  Yes Garrett is another lefty bat, but those things seem to work themselves out when you're performing well.   I know I'm ranting a bit, either way if Garrett performs well in 2006, which I think he will, he could find himself in the scenario I explained for 2007.  I think last year he experienced a combination of two things, new challenges presented by better pitching in AAA and lack of motivation due to the success of Justin Morneau.  This year he has to decide to do well enough where he forces the organization to find options for him in 2007.

Shawn Wooten
In 2006 I believe there's a better than average chance that we'll see Wooten remain on the 40-man roster.  Obviously with so much hype running around Mauer there hasn't been much for catcher prospects coming through the Twins minor league system.  Chris Heintz and Rob Bowen are basically destined to remain minor league catchers, nothing more.  The best strategy in my mind would be to keep Wooten around in 2006 because he does have a good deal of experience and some success at the major league level.  That way if something were to happen to Redmond or god forbid Mauer, we'd have a decent option available.  Wooten is also nice commodity because he has played both and 1st and 3rd, and frankly, we might need a bit of help picking up some of the slack late in the season at those positions.  At 5'10'', 230lbs obviously Wooten is not a defensive stud but he has proven to be a capable back up and a pretty good hitter too.  Overall, I think there's a more than an average chance he'll stick around in the organization and find himself called upon at some point in 2005.

Pat Neshek
As far as auxiliar bullpen guys I really wanted to go with JD Durbin, but I'm not convinced anymore that his stuff is legit.  Even if it is, I don't think he's got the mental apptitude to take it to the next level.  Durbin has yet to perform well beyond AA.  With the Twins he struggled in 2004 and he has yet to impress during spring training either.  More importantly however, he hasn't even looked very good at the AAA level.  Now, since the organization was already high on him once, if he comes out well in 2006 at Rochester, I do believe there's a better chance he'll see time instead of Neshek  But like I said, I'm not counting on it.  Neshek is, in fact, older than Dubin and has shown tremendous ability to get outs coming from the bullpen.  While he isn't truly overpowering, Neshek struck out 95 in 82 innings of relief for New Brittain in 2005.  What's more impressive is that he threw 82 innnings of relief in 55 games.  Showing that he is more than just a simple closer.  The only reason that Neshek has not spent time at AAA is because an older and equally achieving Willie Eyre was Rochester's closer all of last year.  If Eyre makes the bullpen spot like I projected in 2006, Neshek would move to be the closer in Rochester.  In my mind it is no longer about progress with Pat as much as it's about when he's going to get his shot.  The Twins could find themselves a pleasant surprise if they give this guy his opportunity.

Darrell May
When I first read about May's signing I had to say I was a bit insulted.  My reasoning is this, the Twins have two openings in the bullpen for 2006.  Reyes and White had already been signed and now a third was being brought in.   To me it signalled an unwilligness to work with the options already available solely on the basis of lack of experience.  All three of these guys have some experience, and except for Reyes, have some experience with success.  What bothered me is that two of these guys were going to get the two spots, leaving all of our prospects to still waste away in the minors.  However, I am still optimistic that just one of these guys will get a spot and the other will go to whoever proves himself to be more worthy.  The way I projected the bullpen to work out was, White as the loogy and Liriano as the power-lefty/ long relief to start the season.  Then later Liriano would transition into the rotation and Eyre will fill the hole left in his wake.  While that is probably not the most likely projection, I do believe it to be the best model for success.  May, however, seems to be higher than I would have expected on the Twins list.  May had one successful season as a starter for the Royals in 2003.  But that is now a distant memory as May struggled in 2004 and then was unable to successfully transition into a bullpen role in 2005.  While I might not appreciate his certain talents, other of my fellow bloggers have reminded me that the Twins have had good success in making very average pitchers look very good.  I have slowly started to accept May as part of a larger role for the Twins in 2006.  My developing thought is that while May probably wont win a job on the 25-man roster to start the season, I see him taking advantage of this situation/opportunity to revitalize his career.  We have a lot of capable coaches in Rochester, and May has some things to learn/relearn about being a reliever and pitching in general.  Obviously May did something right in 2003, it's just a matter of rediscovering that stuff and maximizing it for future successes.  May, will stick it out with this organization in 2006 and find away to be effective again at the Major League level.

Dave Gassner
For Gassner, I assume 2006 was very frustrating.  In 2003, Gassner had a very good year in AA earning a late season promotion to AAA.  Then in 2004 Gassner moved from the Toronto system to the Twins system and started the year in Rochester.  In 2004 he went 16-8 with a 3.41 ERA for Rochester.  That performance earned him a look during Spring Training in 2005, where he pitched pretty well out of the bullpen (while his ERA was low he did give up 2 HR's in just 11 innings).  In 2005 he also earned himself two starts.  The impressive one of the two came against Cleveland, where he pitched 6 innings (throwing only 72 pitches) and gave up only one run.  Gassner, can be best compared to a Jamie Moyer/ Greg Maddux type pitcher. His repertuoir includes a fastball, change-up, curve and slider, all which he has impressive command over.  His fastball tops out at 86mph and his curve stuggles to reach 70mph.  After his outing in Cleveland, Gassner started again on April 21st.  This time however, Gassner was given a warm greeting to the majors by the AAA roster known as Kansas City.  Gassner failed to finish the 2nd inning, getting shelled for 4 runs.  I'm not sure what the deal is with Kansas City, but I really think they mount a lot of confidence coming into games with young pitching.  My guess is that they know those are the only days when they're going to get their hacks...  Besides his poor performance that particular day, Gassner's 2005 seasoned was marred by some nagging injuries during his time in Rochester where he went 8-8 with an inflated ERA.  At 27, obviously time is wearing thin for Gassner.  I do believe that in another system he could be competing for the 4th or 5th spot in a rotation, unfortuanetly the best he'll be able to do for the Twins in 2006 is compete for that lefty spot in the pen.  I do think that Gassner projects better as a starter because of his control and ability to rack up innings without striking out a lot of guys.  Putting him in a bullpen I think exposes a team to certain risks.  While he's very crafty and does baffle a lot of hitters (anyone remember Tony Fiore?) I think he poses a considerable risk of giving up long balls at the wrong time.  Anyways, I do like Gassner a good deal and I wish him the best for 2006.  Though there are a lot of pitchers in the system who deserve some looks in spot start situations, I do not feel it would be a waste for the Twins to give Gassner a couple more looks in 2006.

Boof Bonser
Bonser is the last element of the Perzynski trade with San Fransisco yet to prove himself at the Major League level.  Obviously Nathan has proved his value, and Fransisco Liriano is set to make his mark in 2006.  Bonser started 2004 in New Brittain and then 2005 in Rochester.  While he has not made any dramatic statements, he has progressed nicely over these past two years.  At AAA last year, Bonser put up a very respectable 11-9 record with a 3.99 ERA, averaging a just over a strike-out an inning.  Bonser is also getting a bit up there in age and I think if Bonser continues to put up similar numbers (or better of course) it would be in the best interest of the Twins to get a legitimate look at Bonser in 2006.  I, personally would be baffled to see Lohse in 2007.  Although according to the Star Tribune today, there are some talks about a 2-year deal with Lohse.  Hopefully that's just to make him more tradable! Plus, Radke is a huge question mark for 2007.  While I wouldn't be surprised to see him delay his retirement, retirement is his current direction.  What I'm getting at is that the Twins need to plan on adding at least one more starter to the rotation in 2007, Bonser is another guy who could (should, if he continues to improve) get some spot starts in 2006 to see what his potential is. 

Glen Perkins
Perkins, as most of you know, hails from Stillwater and played for the Minnesota Gophers.  For Minnesota, Perkins was one of their more dominant pitchers in recent history.  Then after being drafted in 2004, Perkins dominated both Elizabethton and Quad Cities.  By 2005, Perkins was in high A ball and on the fast track.  However, after being moved up to AA after just 9 starts at Fort Myers, Perkins finally struggled.  What was surprising was that he had lost his most defining feature, his control.  In 79 innings he walked 35, making the reason for his struggles quite obviously.  Remaining confident in Perkins stuff, the organization sent him to play in the Arizona Fall League at the end of 2005.  Perkins had to be one of the more dominant pitchers in the league even though he only aquired 1 decision in 7 starts.  There he refound his control striking out 39 in 32 innings and walking only 6, all the while posting a 2.53 ERA.  Yes, I know there's a serious temptation to over-hype Perkins because he's an actual Minnesotan, but I really believe Perkins can find his way into the Twins plans for 2006 and especially 2007.  The Twins have taken it upon themselves to give Perkins a look during Spring Training and I actually feel most compelled to give Perkins a couple spot starts in 2006.  He should start the year in AA and hopefully find himself in AAA before long.  I start to tingle a bit thinking of a 2007 rotation featuring Johan Santana, Carlos Silva, Fransisco Liriano, Scott Baker and then Glen Perkins.  I know many teams rarely have two lefties in their rotations, much less three.  But I don't think it's completely unlikely, because although Santana and Liriano are similar lefties, Perkins defines himself more by his control and craftiness (though he does throw rather hard).  Besides, the last team I remember featuring three very good lefties was the 2002 Athletics and they won 103 games...

Predictions for AL Central

Chicago White Sox-

So much talk this offseason has surrounded the White Sox and whether they will repeat in 2006.  What is so funny for all of us who have watched the sports world discredit the Central for years is that in 2005 we were suppose to remain the weekest division in the American League and now, for 2006, they're talking about the White Sox returning to the World Series.  Which seems odd for such a weak division, right?  Anyways, I believe that the White Sox will be stronger in one respect for next year.  Their pitching, which is hard to imagine considering their recent success.  What Don Cooper has done with what he has been given is simply amazing.  Mark Burlhe will remain the stud, and will remain largely unhearlded as he doesn't have anything electric.  Freddy Garcia seemed to be fadding a bit in Seattle, but now that's a distant memory.   Jose Contreras may struggle a bit early, but he will again be dominant down the stretch.  Jon Garland finally broke out in 2005 after 5 decent seasons.  He showed why the organization was so high on him despite is lack of anything exiting.  The great thing for him is that he's still young, although personally, I'm not expecting huge numbers again in 2006.  The aquisition of Javier Vazquez, while not praised by many in the Twins community, is probably the smartest thing the White Sox could've done for 2006.  Vasquez will probably be the best number five guy in the entire league.  Vasquez has a history of putting up successful numbers without many wins.  The biggest thing is that he's an innings eater.  I fully expect Don Cooper to work with him a bit and show Vazquez how to be as succesfull as the rest of the guys on this rotation.  What scares me with this rotation, is I really don't see any of these guys with a losing record.  Even more exciting for the Sox is that all these guys, with the exception of Contreras, have a history of gobbling up innings.  In fact, everyone on this staff has atleast had 200 innings in a season, four of them have done more than 220 in a season.  What's even scarier is that their pen is very solid, even though they probably won't need it much.  They might even consider having one less guy in the pen than the standard.  Just a thought though.  The one downside for the Sox in 2006, is that I think their offense will continue to be weak in 2006.  In 2005, the Sox completed the pitching and defense part of the equation but their offense was actually not very good.  However, that didn't matter in the postseason, where they showed an extreme nack for timely big hits.  Not to be negative, but I think Brian Anderson will be a major flop next year.  I also think that Thome is not going to produce like they're hoping.  I think some injuries will come back and nag him and while they might not put him out, I think they'll hurt his production.  He'll probably hit 25 HR's but I think his BA will be dismal and he wont accumulate a whole lot of RBI's.  Still I think White Sox will reclaim 1st in the Central

Minnesota Twins-

I believe the Twins will actually take that step forward in 2006.  They will win a lot of games with their pitching, but not as much the Sox.  I'm hoping they'll be in a good enough position to contend for the Wild Card, although the AL East is showing signs of having three really good teams.  The Twins will continue to struggle some offensively, but by the All-Star break I think all the pieces will fall into place and everyone will start feeling comfortable with their expectations.  The Twins I think will have their fare share of surprises, having a couple guys step up that are currently not being counted on.

Detroit Tigers-

In my mind this is potentially the most dangerous team in the division.  I say that because I think they are going to bang up other teams in the division and make 2006 very interesting.  Their rotation will be much improved.  Rogers wont be the Rogers of the first half of 2005, but he will bring a veteran presence to the rotation and provide some inspiration for the rising talent on this club.  Verlander I think will come on strong and I think Joel Zumaya could be a potential wild card down the stretch.  I think offensively, they will be much healthier next year.  They have a nice core of young outfielders and the addition of Polanco last year will pay it's dividends in 2006.  What people haven't noticed yet is that Detroit actually has a very good bullpen, and the addition of Tom Jones will prove vital to their success.  Look for Detroit to finish several games above 500 and become a huge frustration to whichever team is playing for the Wild Card in this division.

Cleveland Indians-

I don't think people have realized yet the strides backwards Cleveland has taken back this offseason.  A couple of days ago one of the writers for mlb.com, Jim Molony, took a look at the AL Central for 2006.  I thought he exemplified the continuing lack of knowledge about the AL Central, despite it's successes in 2005.  Where I thought he was most ignorant, was with his analysis of Cleveland.  He didn't even mention that Cleveland lost Kevin Milwood, the reigning ERA leader in 2005.  Neither did he mention the loss of Scott Elarton.  In my estimation the aquisition of Paul Byrd can nullify the loss of Elarton, but that leaves a major discrepency between Milwood and Jason Johnson.  Johnson is weak even for #5 starter.  If the Indians want to even compete in 2006, they will need Sabathia to step up to the plate and Westbrook will have to find his stuff he had in 2004.  What was most laughable about Molony's predictions for 2006, was Cliff Lee as a 20 game winner.  While Cliff Lee did make some huge strides in 2005, his record of 18-5 was very generous.  The biggest difference with Lee in 2005 compared to 2004 is that he learned how to use his stuff better to get outs instead of trying to strike guys out.  To think that he could ever be a 20 gamer in 2006 is ridiculous for two reasons.  While he is proving to be a very good pitcher, he is by no means dominant.  He still gives up a lot of hits in the innings he pitches. OVbviously though, he's been successful in limiting runs depite the high number of hits.  The second and more telling stat is that he has a total of one career complete game and only one season of 200 innings.  Twenty game winners are guys who consistently go deep into ball games, accumulating at least 220 innings in a season.  Anyways, the Indians bullpen will continue to be their strongest suit in 2006 (even though Wickman is overrated).  The Indians are actually the team most susceptible to injury though, as they do not have a lot of depth beyond their starters.  Though most of their starters are mostly young talent, I forsee lack of depth nipping them in the butt causing them to fall off in the division.  Although with this division in 2006, they could be 4th in the division with a .500 record.

Kansas City Royals

Considering their offseason aquisition across the board, it would be hard to fathom the Royals being completely horrible again in 2006.  To me it's an indication that they too are willing to step it up in the Central and are committed to not being the resident wipping boy.  Coincidently, there are two former Twins starters who should make the Royals rotation barring injury.  Redmond will do alright, but I don't think they know what they have in Mays yet.  It appears as though his last start as a Twin was actually a try-out for the 2006 Royals.  After being hammered early, Mays showed some real grit and finished with three scoreless innings.  Mays, for the first time in a long time, will play inspired in 2006.  Essentially, restating why pitchers need two years to fully recover from Tommy John surgery.  The Royals also aquired Elarton, who I also expect will make the Indians second guess their offseason moves.  All three of these guys are number 4 and 5 starters but they will be an obvious improvement to the children on the mound last year.  I also think that Sanders and Grudzielanek will prove to be good additions.  Hell, Mientkiewicz might even turn his career around...  Essentially, there's a lot of potential for improvement here as a combinations of veterans will try to revitalize their careers and youngters will try to prove they're legit. 

Short Thoughts...

• I thought the Superbowl was actually kind of boring.  Seattle did play their game, just not well enough to win.  I predicted that the Steelers would win if they stuck to their equation.  Early success in the passing game, hard defense and then run, run, run.  While they did win, their equation was nonexistant as their win was fueled by three big plays: a 75-yard run from Willie Parker, a timely interception by Ike Taylor and an amazing on the run pass from an option quarterback to the Super Bowl MVP.  What was even more surprising was that even though Ben looked collected o the sidelines, his play was very uncharacterstic.  He completed 9-21 passes.  He seemed to be contantly missing his targets by at least 3 feet.  Anyways, I know that the Steelers felt a good deal of frustration after losing in the playoffs last year after going 15-1, so winning out this year was a testament to them as a team after going 11-5 this year. 
• Kelly Thesier, the Twins beat reporter for mlb.com, answered one of my questions in her mailbag this week.  I basically brought up my deal where I think that Silva would be more productive in the 2 spot instead of Radke.  Her response was what I expected, having to do with Radke's history with the team.  I guess it was a bit silly to ask the question even though I knew the answer I'd be given.  Oh well.  She did bring up the fact that Radke is a control pitcher as opposed a "power hurler" and that's why he'll remain the number 2 guy.  I think it's interesting though that in many ways Silva is both an extreme control pitcher and kind of a power hurler.  Anyways, mainly just happy that one of my questions was answered.
• Thanks to everyone who has written comments about my site.  It is much appreciated!

2006 Bench Warmers

Introduction
For me, deciding who the bench players were going to be this year was very difficult.  Although I may know in my mind who is going to be on the bench, there exist the biggest discrepancy here on who I believe I value in these situations and who management values.  This year our benches role should be changed quite a bit.  In 2005, guys on the bench actually played quite regularly.  Gardenhire, often times didn't have a lot of patience in developing certain youth on the team, so questionably capable veterans were available when Gardy wanted to display his annoyance.  In 2006 the starting 9 should be much improved and a lot more comfortable.  As a result, he bench this year will probably be employing more traditional roles.  This becomes quite apparent after the signing of Ruben Sierra.  Ruben Sierra is a true pinch hitter. Pinch hitter's last year were mostly young guys getting hacks and being made foolish in the process.  Putting that duty on the shoulders of guys like Terry Tiffee, wasn't exactly a formula for success so some things have changed.  What annoyed me is that by putting guys like that in those type of situations, it might be an attempt at character building, but I think it destroys whatever potential they might have had because it doesn't give them a chance to develop any confidence unless they had an overload of it in the first place.  Anyways, I don't really feel too pressured in my analysis of who's going to be on the bench because frankly we probably won't see as much of them in 2006 as we did last year.  Also, in assessing these guys I actually found myself using stats more, and I guess it makes sense considering 2006 will be a much bigger year for situational usage.

2006 Bench
DH/PH Ruben Sierra
C Mike Redmond
IF Juan Castro
IF Nick Punto
IF/OF Michael Cuddyer

Ruben Sierra
While I'm not particularly enthused about the signing of Ruben Sierra, it really doesn't bother me much.  And by no means am I surprised by the signing, except for the fact that I thought Ryan was done making moves this off-season.  But basically this is the type of guy Gardenhire wanted and Terry Ryan followed his managers recommendations.  Sierra has remade the second half of his career as a pinch hitter.  And at forty that's exactly what we need from him.  Personally when the Twins talked about getting another left-handed power bat for late game situations (essentially another DH type), I wanted Erubiel Durazo.  Yes he struggled in 2005 but he's still fairly young and has real good pop in his bat.  But all things considered with the year he had in 2004 he's probably too expensive, and if he did perform at his best Rondell White would become useless and we'd have a dilemma.  Basically as I mentioned before, Sierra will be one of Gardy's guys.  Somebody who he believes he can count on, someone who's been around awhile and has a decent history of coming through in key situations.  Sierra is forty and he's seen a lot of pitching, so he can also become another hitting coach considering Vavra doesn't have a lot of knowledge about major league pitchers.  One thing that we did lack last year in the dugout was a guy like this to calm down the youngin's when things are tough.  So even if Sierra has a mediocre spring training, baring any injury he should make the roster.  While the Twins probably wont use him as much as the Yankees have over the past two seasons, Sierra should contribute and even win a couple games for us.
Projections:
AB (70) BA (.253) HR (3) RBI (18)

Mike Redmond
I have to say that this guy probably had the single season best performance by a back-up catcher in recent Twins history.  Do I think he will replicate it in 2006?  Defensively?  Yes.  Offensively?  Probably not, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.  Obviously Redmond has more experience and still calls a better game them Mauer, but when Mauer was on the bench in 2006 we actually didn't lose a whole ton at the plate when Redmond was hitting.  After watching all are young ones falter in important situation and then seeing what Redmond did in situational hitting was really refreshing.  With the veteran catchers like we've had recently in guys like Tom Prince and Henry Blanco, you were getting two things.  One you knew they were going to call a great game, and two while neither hit for average, you knew you were going to get the occasional dramatic homerun that won games.  Because essentially, guys like that were all about supporting their pitchers.  Redmond is pretty much the same, but he brings a new intensity to the game.  Obviously his average was amazing compared to what he had done in the past, but the way he collected RBI's with the time he spent at the plate was essential.  You almost wonder why Redmond wasn't used as an occasional DH... (not really but considering the struggles last year it doesn't sound so silly).  Redmond hit an incredible .452 BA with RISP.  What I think is also worth mentioning is that he it .345 against lefties and .397 when away.  Why I mention these is that is role is basically set for next year.  Mauer struggles some against lefties (not really though) and obviously he's a hometown boy so he should play when he's at home.  So basically Redmond should play mostly away games when a lefty is on the mound.  Course that wont necessarily be the case, but it does make sense.  The other thing that I'd like to quickly mention about Redmond, is that though the sample size is small he threw out a much higher percentage of potential base stealers then he ever did in any season with Florida.  And I'm wondering if that's just a testament to how much better most national leaguers are at base-stealing.  Anyways, hopefully Redmond's recuperated from that little injury at the end of the last year and he's good to go.  We are truly blessed to have a guy like this on our roster.
Projections:
G (37) BA (.281) BA w/ RISP (.387)

Juan Castro
Despite the fact that I believe that Juan's over-payed and he'll become even more over-payed in 2006 because his particular skills will become less needed, I do like the guy quite a bit.  He's kind of fun to watch at the plate because you aren't expecting to be impressed but sometimes you are.  Obviously he was signed on as insurance for Bartlett and that suspicion was justified when Bartlett struggled early (mostly offensively).  He has a steady glove and a good arm, but not a whole lot of range as lots of people like to point out.  He's a good SS and a capable back up for 3B and 2B.  A lot of emphasize coming into last year was put on his soft bat and his lack of any speed as a SS.  Castro did prove last year that he did have a bit of a soft bat, but not as soft as it had been in years past.  Yes, Castro was often victim to the "0"fer phenomenon, but he proved to be reliable in key situations.  Even with is lack of playing time, Castro was among the American League leaders in sacrifice hits.  Similarly, he hit an impressive .308 BA with RISP.  On the other hand, Castro is pathetic when nobodies on base hitting a weak .187. I encourage anyone to look at all of Castro's situational stats from last year, it really gave me a good impression of what a professional hitter he's become and how his approach changes with every different situation. So essentially Castro does make a case for what he will mostly be used for in 2006.  He will be a capable late inning back up, who will provide a steady glove and even the ability to provide a couple game winning hits.  On days when for whatever reason either Bartlett, Castillo and even Batista cannot figure it out, I feel comfortable with Castro coming in the game. 
Projections:
G (56) AB (98) BA (.265)

Nick Punto
Ugh...  When I was at TwinsFest I have to say that for some reason nine out of ten times that I'd look up at the big screens they were showing highlights of Punto from last season.  From that and the impression I've gotten from Twins management it really seems that Punto is going to be given another shot to become an integral part of this baseball team.  Personally, last year I can't really remember if I spent more time yelling at this guy or Joe Mays.  As I continue to write on this site you will come to understand my lack of patience for little Nicholas Punto.  My opinion of him can basically be summed up in an experience I had last year.  In late June I was watching ESPN and for once the anchors were talking about the Twins (I know a small money team imagine that!).  Anyways, they were discussing what was starting to become a major flaw for the 2006 Twins: their lack of run production.  The line that got me was one of the anchors suggested that "the Twins are sorely missing the offensive production of their second basemen."  Basically I did a double take, and literally ask the TV if he was actually referring to Punto.  Granted Punto at the time was hitting like .290 something but I knew better.  When he did come back he proved to me again that he has no business being on a major league roster.  What guys like Gardenhire use as bragging points for Punto are nowhere near legitimate in my mind.  I will deconstruct them for you.  Punto is fast. Well so what if your not able to effectively use your speed.  Punto may have stolen 13 bases, but he also got caught 8 times.  Further, I can recall on several occasions Punto over assuming his abilities and often finding himself caught in-between bases.  Basically, Punto may be fast, but he'd probably run into a brick wall if you told him to.  Punto can bunt.  Yes he can bunt, I can even remember him winning the game a couple times on a bunt.  On the other hand I can also remember him being so incapable of putting the ball on the turf he'd often foul out with two strikes.  So again not an effective bunter after all.  As far as the other things go, yes Punto is a switch hitter but so is Luis Rodriguez and Rodriguez hit 30 points higher than Punto.  More importantly Rodriguez proved he had good plate discipline and hit .375 with RISP while Nick managed a pathetic .204.  Overall, Luis Rodriguez proved that he is better or at least matched Punto in every facet of the game besides speed.  And if your so committed to having someone with speed of the bench at least go with someone like Jason Tyner  who has prooven extremely effective in stealing bases throughout his career (49SB/10CS).  And personally I wouldn't be worried having another outfielder because with Castro and Cuddyer (both million plus contracts I might add) we would be covered in backing up the infield.
Projections:
G (100) AB (??) BA (.214) OBP (.267) SB (11) CS (7)

Michael Cuddyer
Though I think last year was silly with everyone blaming all our troubles on Cuddyer, he has yet to prove that he can be a starter.  Soon to be 27, Cuddyer's getting to be a little old to be called a prospect anymore.  One of the things that I found most interesting in looking at Cuddyer's stats from last year, was that his batting average was literally up and down each month (apr ,205, may .310, jun. 250, jul .296, aug .224, sep .308), which is really a testament to how he hasn't figured out how to preform consistently in his own head.  Back when he was going through the system he was projected to be a .280 hitter who would also provide 20 plus homeruns.  The last two years he's posted a BA of .263 and 12 HR both years.  I assume 2006 is his last year to try to make himself into more than just a utility player with decent playing time.  With Ford and Kubel to battle out right field with, he's going to have to do really well during spring training.  However, with the tendencies he's shown over the past couple of years I really don't see it happening.  Last year he did well enough with no pressure, but hit only .204 with RISP.  Similarly, all his homeruns came when a base-runner was no further than first base and the story is mostly the same with his other extra base hits.  The best offensive performance I witnessed last year of Michael's came on September 22nd against Oakland.  That day he was tearing it up and really showed why this franchise has always been so high on him.  He had 4 hits and a walk, 3 doubles and a homerun.  Great day yes, but you would think with so many extra base hits he'd amount a whole ton of RBI's.  He amounted four.  While that is a reminder of how bad the 2005 Twins were at getting on base, it shows Michael's story and how he'll never be clutch.  And while being clutch is sometimes overrated, being completely inept is not (ie all the grounding into double plays when it counts).  As far as 2006 is concerned, there is a definite role for Cuddyer.  He is a capable utility man even if he doesn't stand out at any particular position.  I can see Michael spending some time in right field, 2nd base and right now he's the only one who really has any experience at 1st base (Morneau can't play everyday).  I also think there's a slight possibility that he might get another shot at 3rd if Batista shows up and is absolutely pathetic.  Obviously most of his time in 2006 will come from starting in whichever position giving multiple guys a day of rest.  I do think he can be used in some late game situations as a pinch hitter who LEADS OFF the inning and then makes his way into the field after an at-bat.  He's also shown that he's a good hitter down the stretch in September.  Somewhat surprising is that he has 37 AB in the post-season and has posted a .378 BA.  Although somewhat the same story in that he has 14 hits but only 4 RBI's.  Overall, another wild card who could prove to be valuable if he gets his act together.  If he's used how I just described, his numbers will actually be pretty reasonable.
Projections:
G (92) BA (.271) OBP (.330) HR (9) 2B (16)

Other Stuff

• I was planning on talking about more than just the bench today, but I found I actually had a lot to say about each player, so I'll try to post at some point this weekend about who we can expect some cameo's this season, or at least who deserves some looks.
• I've been reading a lot of stuff at twinkietown.com lately, I think jclund did a good job of analyzing the situation of the lead off man.  I too believe that Shannon will probably start there, but hopefully it will become obvious that Castillo should take over because he'll be getting on-base so much and the speed factor.  Also something that's been really surprising, especially with all the talk on the 25-man roster, is the number of people who think Kubel's going to start the season in RF.  While I think he's probably the best player, I'd like to reiterate what an amazing comeback that would be considering two things.  He hasn't played competitive ball in a year and his emergence only happened in 2004.  Before that, he really wasn't considered a top prospect.  Anyways, I'm certainly willing to have him prove me wrong, but I think it'll be awhile before he sees regular play with the Twins.
• I don't know if this is a big problem usually for guys just starting a blog, but so far I've posted quite a few entries and I've only received one comment.  And though I see that people are visiting my site, it would be nice to get some more feedback.  It would be nice to know that my writing is worthwhile in that I'm not blurting out what dozens of others have already stated before me.  Original thought is what I'm going for.  Anyways, thanks to those of you who have been curious enough to read some of my stuff!

2006 Starting Lineup

Introduction
There's has been a lot of discussion lately concerning the status of the roster and the lineup and it's about time I gave my opinion of the overall picture.  Some things have changed slightly in my outlook since the signing of Ruben Sierra, but not dramatically obviously.  The only glove that Sierra will be carrying around in 2006 will be his batting glove.  While most of us are pretty comfortable about who will be starting in what positions, the biggest challenge at this point will be to determine the batting order.  Though many in the Twins community were disappointed not to see some bigger name players among the list of acquisitions this year, we all have to admit the offense looks a lot better.  I especially am impressed with Terry Ryan's unwillingness to stray from what has brought the Twins success over the years, defense and pitching.  The three biggest acquisitions this season were Luis Castillo, Tony Batista, and Rondell White.  Castillo and White are both fine players in that they're both experienced professional hitters.  But more importantly, in terms of defense you can see Ryan's determination in acquiring Castillo not only for his on base percentage but for his three time gold glove skills.  We can also see Ryan's commitment to defense in his pursuit of Hank Blalock of Texas.  Obviously the price was too high and Ryan was unwilling to forfeit our future in Liriano and/or Baker.  This is important to note, that though our defense was mediocre last year, our pitching was the only reason we were above .500 in 2005.  In Ryan's system, pitching is first, defense is second.  Losing Liriano or Baker would have been a breach of that priority system.  Since Blalock didn't work out, Ryan went out and found Batista.  Though I wouldn't label Batista as a professional hitter he does have quite a bit of experience in driving runs in and he has a solid glove despite is lack of range.  So if Batista holds up his end of the bargain going into spring training, there only seems to be one question.  And that is who will be playing right field.  Before I go into my lineup I'd like to introduce a little something called the Ulger Effect.

The Ulger Effect:
Keep in mind that this is only a theory, but I'd like to go over what I've come up with.  Most can agree that Scott Ulger has really not done much over the past couple years as hitting coach to deserve any merit.  But what I'd like to show is the negative effect that he may very well be responsible for in the Twins offense.  The 2006 season was marked with frustration and basic ineptness as the Twins were unable to score runs.  What was really noticeable for me was the drop in basic batting average of the developing youth and even some of the seasoned veterans on the team.  Many people blamed that the struggles these individuals encountered were due to lack of protection throughout the lineup I think it's deeper than that.  Morneau was one of the individuals most effected.  After having a breakout half season in 2004, in 2005 he struggled, quite horrifically in some instances.  In 2004 Justin hit a respectable .271 but last year he hit only .239.  Not as noticeable but still significant, in 2004 Lew Ford hit .299 but last year he hit only .264.  Also among those effected was Jacque Jones who in 2003 hit exactly .300 but in the last two years he's posted marks of .254 and .249.  Even Matthew Lecroy who it .287 in 2003 has dropped off.  What seems to be happening here is a real negative decline in the hitting philosophy.  Coming out of the minors, these guys have great approaches at the plate but then the more it seems that they are exposed to Ulger and his ways, the more they are effected.  Even some like Shannon Stewart seemed to be effected by this trend.  In his first year and a half with the Twins Shannon hit well over .300, but last year he struggled to hit .274.  What this is boiling down to for me is that exposure to Ulger's philosophy is really messing with these guys approaches at the plate.  Depending on how well ingrained these guys previous philosophy's are, the effects seem to be taking their toll.  Now granted I will not ignore that there are other contributing factors to their struggles, but I for one am very happy with the Vavra choice.  Hopefully this guy will be able to bring back the philosophies of old (that is the philosophies that they were originally taught in the minors) and reinvigorate the Twins lineup.

My 2006 Lineup

1) Luis Castillo 2B
2) Shannon Stewart LF
3) Joe Mauer C
4) Rondell White DH
5) Justin Morneau 1B
6) Torii Hunter CF
7) Tony Batista 3B
8) Lew Ford/ Jason Kubel RF
9) Jason Bartlett SS

Luis Castillo
In my mind Castillo is a no brainer to bat first in the lineup.  Though Gardenhire will probably start the season with Shannon batting first, I hope he eventually figures it out.  So why would I bat Castillo ahead of Stewart?  Well there are several things.  Though many believe that Castillo has lost most of his speed due to injuries and age, I believe they are greatly over exaggerating.  If in 2006, Castillo proves to be completely recovered from his hip and thigh problems, I believe he can return to be a formidable base stealer.  The biggest decline in his stolen bases occurred not because of injuries and age but rather, the breakout of Juan Pierre in 2003 as the new lead off man for the Marlins.  That year, Castillo's base-running failed to adjust to it's new role and while he stole 21 bases he was also caught 19 times.  In 2004, Castillo proved what he has throughout his entire career, his ability to adapt and his willingness to improve his game.  That year he stole 21 bases again but was only caught 4 times.  2005 of course was marked by injuries, so basestealing wasn't really apart of Castillo's game but getting on base was.  While Castillo has shown marked improvement in his ability to get on base during his career, 2005 was huge because he had 2 BB's for every strikeout and posted a .391 on base percentage in the process.  Castillo should bat first for the Twins because of his extreme ability to get on base.  If Castillo's not beating the ball into the turf for singles, we can count on him to work the count very well and to even draw walks when necessary.   Once on base, he'll be a treat to steal and at the very least to get those extra bases on singles and doubles.
Projections:
G (145) BA (.303) OBP (.380) R (94) SB (28) CS (7)

Shannon Stewart
Though during his prime Shannon was the ultimate lead off man, I really think he's developed (from age) into an ideal #2 hitter.  Shannon has always hit for average, has always gotten on base.  During his earlier years though, Shannon was a speedster and stole 51 bases at one point.  From what we've seen in Minnesota that speed is all but gone.  Even with a .274 average last year, Shannon was our most professional hitter.  Gardenhire at one point even tried moving Shannon to the 3 hole in an attempt to boost production.  Shannon is the best choice for the 2 hole next year, because you know he's going to provide some decent pop hitting his fair share of doubles and his standard dozen homeruns, and you know if you need him to hit a ground-ball to the right side of the infield, he'll probably do it.  And if he does return to his .300 BA form, that would be all the better.  I do believe he his showing his age much more than Castillo.  But in all fairness, Stewart is a great hitter and he's an above average outfield and after all it is a contract year.
G (139) BA (.287) OBP (.362) R (80) RBI (51)

Joe Mauer
Joe was one of the few shinning stars in the 2005 campaign.  I imagine, he will only build on his marks this year.  Joe should really begin developing into the number 3 hole.  With both Castillo and Stewart in front of him, Joe will be seeing many more RBI opportunities.  And though I may have been a bit disappointed with Joe's lack of HR's last year at times he was a double machine and I have absolutely no problems with that.  The biggest thing for Joe as he develops his power will be pulling the ball.  One of Mauer's greatest attributes is his patience and his willingness to hit the ball to all fields.  But if you'll notice his hit chart from last year, the closes thing did to pulling the ball on any of his extra base hits was right-center.  If Mauer wants to become a power threat, he'll have to be willing to pull the ball.  Although, personally I don't believe that's a direction he needs to head.  With his current philosophy at the plate he is one of the league leaders in pitches taken.  He works counts really well and he waits for pitches he can drive.  The only problem with him taking the BB last year was that there was nobody behind him that could consistently drive him in.  Mauer also caught a lot of people by surprise last year in his ability to steal a couple bases when circumstances require.  Beyond his offense, it's great to know that Mauer and Redmond both are developing a reputation as great defenders.  Together they were among league leaders in throwing guys out on the base paths.  The American League over the past couple years has shown greater emphasis on basestealing.  Which has been shown through the success of Podsednik in Chicago and Figgins in Anaheim.  If the Twins catcher tandem can take that element away from the game of our opponents that will be a big plus. 
Projections:
G (140) BA (.307) RBI (75) 2B (39) HR (12)

Rondell White
From my impressions of White over the weekend at TwinsFest, it seems that he is a stand-up guy and should add a great presence to the club house.  Every time I looked his direction he was smiling or laughing.  From a professional standpoint you really feel for the guy because he's consistently put up good numbers but he always finds ways to get hurt.  When he went down in 2005 he was hitting .313 and had amounted 53 RBI's in 97 games.  What was most telling for me is that he was tied with Gary Sheffield at 4th in the American League with a BA of .364 with runners in scoring position.  Pretty impressive considering present company.  In my mind that makes him the undeniable candidate to be in the cleanup spot.  Though he's known as somewhat of a free swinger, Rondell always has a high average.  And though he may not be a true power threat he still puts in a good amount of homeruns and doubles.  On top of that Rondell provides a good bat against lefties, which has always been a struggle for many Twins with the exception of guys like Matthew Lecroy of course.  2006 should hold some good things for White if he leaves his outfielders glove at home.  Hopefully he'll develop into his new role as a DH.
Projections:
G (150) BA (.285) RBI (96) HR (19)

Justin Morneau
Ah Justin, you have so much potential, please don't let it go to waste!  Obviously 2005 was a struggle for Morneau at the plate.  His defensive skills seem to be improving steadily.  Morneau of course was a catcher and then was almost immediately converted to a first basemen after the emergence of Joe Mauer.  At TwinsFest when I had Morneau sign his rookie card that has a picture of him catching, he got Rondell White's attention and started to reminisce a bit about catching.  I asked him if he missed it because I too have had my experience as a catcher, and he said he'd still be doing it if Joe wasn't in his way.  Anyways, though his offensive performance was frustrating through most of last year, Justin again showed his tremendous power.  He hit only 22 homeruns (not bad but we all know he has potential to double that figure) but he average over 400 feet per blast.  I think I might start a new hang out spot at the Twins games in the right field upper deck...  In all seriousness with the things he showed in a half a year in 2004, I am not at all surprised about what happened in 2005.  In 2004 Justin showed he could be a force and basically had every American League team scrambling to find answers to get him out.  In April Justin did really well, but what he didn't know was that he was being attacked by pitchers in an attempt to find his weaknesses already somewhat shown by the tape from the year before.  By May the pitching adjustment had been made, and Justin fell of immensely.  In 2006 it will be Justin's turn to adjust.  By now he should know his own weaknesses and he should know where he thrives.  With added protection around him in White in front and Hunter after, Justin will see better pitching on top of his own adjustments.  One suspicion I do have about Justin is that I don't believe he likes the confines of the dome.  Being Canadian born I think he much prefers playing outdoors.  Last year he hit .268 away and an almost equal mark when playing on grass.  Those numbers are not really evident in 2004, so I guess I really don't know.  We'll see...  I am actually going to dare myself to go out on a limb and say that Justin will have a more productive season than Thome in Chicago.
Projections:
G (158) BA (.265) HR (33) RBI (92) SLG (.510)

Torii Hunter
Over the past off-season I've read a lot pieces and opinions on why Torii is overrated and why his salary should be dumped in a trade, further many believed he was replaceable.  I disagree.  While Ford did provide somewhat effectively in Torii's absence last year, he did not come close to what Torii is capable.  Plus Torii's presence in the clubhouse is big.  He does more than lead by example in that he is one of the more vocal guys in the clubhouse. I will not go into the Morneau thing because it was an isolated incident that we have fans have really no experience in dealing with (ie it happens more than we know in the average clubhouse). Torii's skills in the outfield remain unmatched.  Sure sometimes Hunter will make the unnecessary dive and make the catch look harder than it was.  But for anyone who has actually played baseball and played in the outfield knows, sometimes making a planned dive or tumbling is a lot safer than trying to keep your balance and eventually falling face first into the turf.  And for a guy like Hunter who is comfortable with his skills, he's become very good at avoid possible injury situations.  Hunter did end up hurting himself in Fenway, but the set up of that park is extremely awkward and I think it's an injury waiting to happen unless it's your home-field.  Plus with all his aggressiveness and the fact that he's only had two major injuries in seven seasons, you really have to trust that he knows what he's doing.  As far as Torii's offensive production last year and in years past, I have no grievances.  In 2005 Hunter again proved that he's one of the top hitting center fielders posting a .815 OPS second only to Grady Sizemore in the American league.  More importantly, Hunter has always shown a willingness to develop his overall game to help the team.  Though the Twins had a good amount of speed last year Torii was the only one who pursued his ability to steal bases consistently without being thrown out.  He was actually on his way to breaching 30 SB for the first time in his career, which is impressive considering his age.  I think with Batista batting behind him or even Cuddyer if plans change, the fear alone of being hit into a double play should boost his basestealing marks.  The thing with Hunter is that he has the tools to be that 30HR-30SB guy, but I just don't think he has the consistency to hit 30HR's in a season.  He had his best shot in 2002 when he had 20 by the All-Star break, but obviously he came up one short.  All in all,  I look forward to Hunter's defensive production again in 2006 and I look forward to his bat remaining as our best power threat from the right side of the plate.
Projections:
G (140) BA (.272) OPS (.820) HR (26) SB (31) CS (9)

Tony Batista
I think that we all have to admit that this guy coming in is definitely the biggest wild card besides the possibilities with Kubel.  We know that Ryan pursued this guy not only because of his pop but because of his solid glove and arm at third.  While he doesn't have great range he is a good third basemen.  My biggest concern though is that he seems to have put on some weight, so we'll see if that affects his performance.  I remember watching as a kid his batting stance and trying to even mimic it a couple times when playing baseball with friends.  I have to say I'm a little excited to see it in person.  What Batista provides offensively are homeruns and RBI's.  You would think that a guy with a sub .250 BA would not get very many RBI's but Batista manages it.  The thing about Batista is that he doesn't strikeout a ton for a power hitter.  While he does have his fare share, he tends to make a lot of contact.  The thing that makes sense with his RBI totals is that he hits a lot of pop flies and a lot of ground balls with guys on base and they end up finding ways to score.  If Batista does hit this low in the lineup I'm really not expecting a lot of RBI's though.  I do however believe that his batting average wont be as bad as some may think although his OBP will probably remain pathetic.  Batista's career year came in 2000 when he was with Toronto (and Shannon Stewart) where he hit .263 with 41 HR's and 114 RBI's.  But that was in a lineup with a lot of protection and a lot of power, with 7 guys having 20 or more homeruns.  With this lineup and the potential we have, in theory pitchers should not be able to pick and choose who they can pitch to.  Batista will be one of the guys to benefit heavily from that.
Projections:
G (130) BA (.249) HR (27) RBI (72)

Lew Ford
For right now I'm putting Ford to start the season in RF.  I don't think they'll take the risk with Kubel to start the season unless he puts up a ridiculous performance during spring training.  In my mind Ford beats out Cuddyer in almost every perspective of the game.  Ford for one is a much better outfielder.  Though I wouldn't say he has a good arm, he's shown good range and the ability to play all three outfield positions.  In terms of hitting, Lew Ford's average fell back in 2005 but I expect him to readjust in 2006 plus he will be hitting 8th after all.  The only leg up that Cuddyer has on Ford is the power potential, I think that facet is nullified in the timeliness of Ford's homeruns.  Lat year 6 of his 7 homeruns were three run shots.  Besides, in 2004 Ford hit 15 HR which is better than any of Cuddyer's yearly marks.  But I should stop ranting about power because that's not what Ford's about.  Ford's about ripping doubles down the line, and is dangerous when pitched to on the inside half of the plate.  Ford's worst month by far last year was July when he hit a pathetic .173.  I think he finally made the adjustment to pitchers unwillingness to show him a lot on the inside part of the plate at the end of the year when he hit .299 in August and .283 in September.  The other thing I like about Ford is his speed.  I think with steadier play he'll become a better base stealer and you gotta like his ability to leg out some triples too.  And finally what people don't talk about much, is that I believe Ford has very good plate discipline which should show more in 2006. Overall I'm a big fan of Ford, he is one my top 5 Twins players that I've enjoyed watching play over the years and I do think he is worthy of an everyday job in the outfield.  But obviously with Kubel in the wings, it's hard to say.
Projections:
G (113) BA (.279) 2B (23) OBP (.360)
Jason Kubel
When Kubel does emerge in 2006 I see no problem starting him here in the lineup so he can gain some confidence, although if he does as well as I think he will there's a good chance he wont stay in the 8 hole for very long.  Right now it would be a real miracle for Kubel to come out and win the starting job or even be on the roster.  After having a banner year in 2004, Kubel when down and basically hasn't played competitive ball for a year.  May I also mention that Kubel was consider a pretty average prospect in the minors until his breakout in 2004.  In my estimation Kubel will start out in Rochester and by mid-season he'll be tearing it up so badly that the Twins will be forced to bring him up.  That will of course push Ford into the 4th outfielder role but with Stewart and Torii, he'll still see some decent playing time.  Kubel will then come in and not only show his high average abilities but also good amount of pop in his bat.  It think that his power will be much more impressive in a half year as opposed to if he were to be on the team the entire year.  I also really think that playing a half year in the majors will be most beneficial for his knee as you do not want to put a lot of stress on it after such a major injury.  Though I have yet to watch him play outfield, apparently he has a cannon, so that should be exciting too.
Projections:
G (75) BA (.312) OBP (.383) HR (11)

Jason Bartlett
Jason will be a big reason the Twins will be successful in 2006, not necessarily for his offensive production but for the defense he can provide.  The start of the season was a bit of a struggle for Bartlett, I think most of it was that he was nervous.  But after heading back to the minors for awhile, he really did come back inspired and I think he realized that defensively he's fully capable of starting at SS.  The biggest thing for Bartlett is his range.  With Castillo on the other side the Twins should be really tough up the middle and will end up really helping guys like Silva and Crain who thrive with good defense behind them.  In 2006 I don't expect Jason to start as an everyday player but as he continues to gain confidence I think he will be done the stretch.  Especially as the organization realizes how overrated guys like Punto are.  In terms of hitting 9th, Bartlett has the potential to be more (obviously with Gardenhire's wanting him to hit 2nd) but hitting here will help him the most in 2006.  With him hitting 9th, for me there's a guarantee that his isolated plate discipline will be at least .60 so he'll be on-base quite a bit.  And far as his BA, there's a huge range of possibility.  The range I think starts at .240 and could reach as high as .280.  He also brings a good deal of speed to the base-paths and I think he will have a good deal of practice on his bunting skills next year.  I think the biggest surprise for Bartlett will be the amount of extra base hits he will accumulate, including a decent amount of homeruns.  For a shortstop 6', 190lbs he's not very small.
Projections:
G (123) BA (.262) OBP (.329) SB (14) CS (6)

Other Stuff

• Ruben Sierra- The signing surprises me just a bit, because personally I thought he was done.  When Ryan talked about acquiring a left-handed stick of the bench, of course most of us jumped at Erubiel Durazo.  But in all honesty, Ryan has made a name for himself finding bargains that the blogging community (and everyone else for that matter) haven't really seen coming.  Plus Durazo is likely to be expensive and if he plays as well as he's capable, having Rondell White could become irrelevant.  Pending no injuries I fully expect Sierra to be on the roster, come April.  You know he'll be one of Gardy's guys, who he knows he can count on.
• TwinsFest-  Though it finished a couple days ago I'd like to finally post some of my thoughts.  This was my first year in attendance, I did enjoy it quite a bit.  I got some of my rookie cards signed which was nice.  Although it's been awhile since I've been in contact with card dealers, I was quickly reminded why I'm not a big fan.  Though I have a nice collection, most of my cards came from when I was little and tried to get the most cards for my weekly allowance.  Though I do have some good rookie cards like Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey, Jason Giambi, Ivan Rodriguez and Tom Glavine to name a few, dealers are more interested in cards with chunks of bat or jersey's pasted on them or cards of which only 50 were made which is very annoying.  Oh well.  My one bragging point is that I was able to find a Rondell White card from 1991 several years before his Major League debut.  On the back it lists him as a "best athlete" and a "five tools" player.  Although I don't think the throwing arm panned out.  Anyways I obviously got that signed.  Other things I liked about TwinsFest was the ability to meet some of the younger prospects who have yet to make it.  Perkins was there, Willie Eyre (who I think will make the bullpen), Adam Harben and Pat Neshek just to name a few.  I also spent some time watching and listening to the WCCO radio show.  Obviously ol' Sid was a major crutch to the old thing still talking about acquiring Mike Piazza with Terry Ryan and bringing up Shannon's foot which happened in 2004 not 2005.  But still it was good to hear from Gardy himself that Bartlett has the most potential at SS, and if he does well enough the spot should be his.  I also bought some regular season tickets when I was there on Friday.  I'm excited that I got some tickets to the first Yankee serious near their bullpen.  Maybe I'll yell at Farnsworth a couple times...  The other highlight is that I randomly bumped into Seth from sethspeaks.net.  I bumped into him on Friday by the prospects table.  I read basically every posting Seth does, his most recent was on the fantasy look at the AL East, which should be an interesting battle in 2006.
• Tomorrow I will finish my look at the 2006 Twins Roster, by going over the bench players.  I will also include a look at some players we might see throughout the season and possible September call-ups.